Patrick Mahomes is going for his fourth Super Bowl victory and third in a row. He hasn't been at his prolific best, but once again the Chiefs are in position to reign supreme in the NFL.
Mahomes didn't finish in the top five of NFL MVP voting, but the Chiefs won 15 games during the regular season with only one loss in a game he started.
Usually, Mahomes balls out in the Super Bowl. Let's preview what we can expect on Sunday.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
Mahomes hasn’t necessarily been prolific in the playoffs so far, although his performance against the Bills was very impressive.
After passing for just 177 yards in a ho-hum win over the Texans in the Divisional Round, Mahomes thrived against the Bills. He was 18-of-26 for 245 yards and one passing touchdown with 11 carries for 43 yards and two TDs on the ground.
The game against Buffalo graded out as one of the best in Mahomes’ career. He had 10.19 air yards per attempt, which was his highest of the season, and his 13.6 yards per completion was his second-highest average of the season.
Expert Sean Koerner’s projections for Mahomes are mostly in line with the market. He has him at 30 rushing yards compared to 29.5 at DraftKings, and he has Mahomes at 23.5 completions, which is the total.
Koerner’s numbers agree with our pick, though, as he has Mahomes pegged for 6.6 rush attempts against the Eagles.
Prediction
Patrick Mahomes Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
By Charlie Wright
We easily hit this in the AFC Championship Game at 4.5, as Patrick Mahomes had a season-high 11 carries.
Mahomes ramps up his production on the ground in the playoffs, and he has set a new season high in rush attempts in each of the Chiefs' first two playoff games. He's averaging 5.4 carries across 20 career playoff games compared to 3.9 attempts across 112 in the regular season. Mahomes has at least six carries in five straight postseason games.
The Eagles ranked in the middle of the NFL in terms of allowing quarterback rush attempts this season. They held Jayden Daniels to six carries in the NFC Championship Game, though he turned them into 48 yards.
Philadelphia should be comfortable playing man coverage against this group of receivers, just as Buffalo was in the AFC Championship Game. That should mean plenty of scrambling opportunities.
We also have added equity with potential Mahomes kneel-downs either at halftime or the end of the game.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 5.5 Rush Attempts (-125)
