There truly is nothing like the NFL.
The Patriots were pegged to be the worst team in the league, entering the year with the worst odds to win the Super Bowl at +30000. They were also getting eight points, making them the second-biggest Week 1 'dog since 2000.
So, what happens?
Naturally, they pulled off the biggest upset of Week 1, beating the heavily favored Bengals 16-10 to kick off the post-Bill Belichick era. Not only that, but their victory was the biggest opening week upset since the Buccaneers beat the Saints in 2018 despite being 10-point dogs.
Cincinnati being so heavily favored made sense. After all, Joe Burrow was back in the fold while no one expected much from new head coach Jerod Mayo or journeyman Jacoby Brissett under center. The public loved it despite laying so many points as their 69% of all bets was the most of any favorite. Additionally, getting 67% of the money was second-most behind only the Lions.
Cincinnati looked off from the get-go. They couldn’t muster much of anything early, entering halftime in a 10-0 hole. New England added to the lead with a field goal, going up 13-0 before Cincinnati finally got on the board with just over a minute to go in the third quarter. However, they couldn’t get over the hump as they were left in disbelief while the Patriots dumped the Gatorade bucket over Mayo.
New England covering the spread isn’t much of a surprise considering the history of big ‘dogs ATS kicking off the season. Underdogs of at least 6.5 points or more were 46-27 ATS in Week 1 dating back to 2016. Meanwhile, Burrow’s struggles early in the season are well documented. He’s now only 2-7 over the first two weeks, which is worth knowing as the Bengals prepare to rebound next week against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs.
The Patriots’ upset was also a disaster for a sizeable portion of those playing survivor leagues as a whopping 35.3% of the public backed the Bengals, which was far and away the most of any team.
