When I looked at Sean Koerner's projections for Bills vs. Patriots player props, what stood out was the value we're getting.
One prop, I simply like the pick. The other, I was surprised by how big the plus number we're getting is — and I like the pick.
Since picking a DeAndre Hopkins over using the Action Labs Player Props tool back on Monday Night Football of Week 11, the picks in my write-ups using Koerner's projections are 10-2. And I'm just scratching the surface of the incredible numbers and data available to you by signing up.
Here are where my bets are going for Thursday Night Football below.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Over 4.5 Receptions (+100)
Here’s what the deal has been of late for the Patriots: If they’re trailing or the game is tight, Rhamondre Stevenson is going to play a big role in the passing game.
Stevenson has gone over 4.5 catches in four of his last five games. He’s had at least six targets in all of those games, and he even had seven in his three-catch game in a win over the Colts back in Week 9.
The four times that Stevenson has gone over that total, New England either lost or the game was a one-score win. That aforementioned Week 9 win over Indianapolis finished 26-3.
Of all the scenarios that could play out on Thursday night, New England blowing out the Bills is the least likely outcome. This divisional matchup is no doubt going to be highly contested and a tight affair, with two impressive defenses on display.
Stevenson is being projected for 4.8 catches, but you. Can get that number at +100 at DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon. Use the Action Labs Player Props tool to get the latest odds from across sportsbooks. At plus money, this one seems like a solid pick.
Gabe Davis
Over 3.5 Receptions (+135)
Davis is only projected for 3.5 receptions on Thursday night, but we’re getting a very nice plus number attached to his over at 3.5. It’s +130 at PointsBet and +126 at FanDuel.
There are two reasons I like this prop.
The first is pretty simple: Davis has at least four catches in each of his last three games. The Bills’ No. 2 receiver went through a dry spell in the middle of the season, hauling in just 14 of 33 targets from Weeks 3-9. Over the last three games, though, Davis has 15 catches on 22 targets from Josh Allen.
The second reason is the matchup. While New England’s defense is no doubt impressive, it ranks 20th in DVOA against opposing No. 2 receivers this season.
Davis has at least five targets in nine of his 10 appearances this season, but it’s been at least six in five of his last seven games. The total is right in line with projections here, but we’re getting value on the over.
Pick: Gabe Davis Over 3.5 Receptions |
