Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite player prop for every slate and primetime game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has a 400-299-4 (57%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.
Patriots vs. Bucs Props
Tom Brady Over 305.5 Passing Yards
We have to go beyond our projections on Tom Brady as he makes his return to Foxborough.
There are certain situations like this one where a player's motivation is too high to base decisions only on models. Take Justin Jefferson in Week 17 of last season as an example — the Vikings wide receiver needed 111 receiving yards to set the record for most for a rookie in NFL history. His motivation to set that record is why I bet the over on his 75.5-yard receiving prop. He finished with 133 receiving yards.
Brady's first game in New England since leaving the Patriots qualifies as a significant enough motivator, but it doesn't hurt that he's also only 68 yards away from unseating Drew Brees as the NFL's all-time passing yards leader.
Give me this over up to 330.5 yards.
Pick: Tom Brady Over 305.5 Passing Yards (-110) at BetMGM
