Cardinals vs Patriots Odds
| Patriots Odds | -2.5 (-108) |
| Cardinals Odds | +2.5 (-112) |
| Moneyline | -136 / +116 |
| Over/Under | 44.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Odds via FanDuel. For the latest NFL odds, click here. | |
Cardinals vs Patriots Picks
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Brandon Anderson: Monday night may not be the most enticing matchup, but it's my favorite spread of the week. Bill Belichick with extra time to prepare in a coin-flip matchup against Kliff Kingsbury? Say no more.
Bill vs. Kliff is close to an auto-play, but let's make the case.
Belichick is 65% ATS after a loss, 60% against the spread (ATS) against the NFC and 65% in toss-up spreads of three or less. As a seven-point favorite or anything worse after a loss, Belichick is a ridiculous 41-11-1 ATS (79%) in his career, including 3-1 this season.
Road favorites under seven points are 44-30-1 ATS (59%) facing a team coming off a bye, and even that Arizona advantage is muted since New England played Thursday and had extra time too.
If you read my picks columns regularly, you know we like Kingsbury as an underdog, but those spots are better on the road and against coaches who haven't won a Super Bowl. In case you forgot, Belichick has done that a few times.
Kyler Murray has won only one of his last 10 home games, and Kingsbury famously craters in the back half of the season. He's 10-23 SU from Week 8 forward, including an ugly 12-19-2 ATS (39%).
Oh, you want actual football reasons too? The Patriots defense ranks third in DVOA. The Cardinals offense ranks 29th, and the defense has the same ranking over the past six weeks. During that stretch, New England ranks ninth overall in DVOA, while the Cards are second to last.
Arizona's backwoods offense ranks 29th in Success Rate, so they have to grind out long drives and rely on Kyler magic. The Pats rank fourth defensively in that stat, and they're second in pressure rate and rarely allow explosive plays.
And again: Belichick with extra time against Kingsbury? You had me at hello. This was Patriots -1.5 early on Monday afternoon, but I'd play this to Patriots -2.5, where it has gone up to at most sportsbooks.
Pick: Patriots -2.5 |
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Ricky Henne: I love Hunter Henry in this spot against Arizona.
It’s impossible to stress how terrible the Cardinals are defending tight ends. They’re far and away the worst in the NFL against TEs, giving up the most touchdowns (nine), receptions (83) and yards (880) to the position.
In fact, I love this matchup so much I don’t know which prop to back most. There’s the longest reception, which most sportsbooks have at 15.5. Henry’s had a catch exceeding that number in six of his last eight games.
Then there’s totalreceiving yards, which has hovered around 30.5 all week. The Cardinals have allowed a tight end to go over that number in all but two games this season.
If you’re looking for bang for your buck, a Henry anytime touchdown is also promising. I’ve had success the last few weeks with anytime touchdowns I believe have favorable odds, and this certainly qualifies. Henry may only have two touchdowns on the season, but in an offense that struggles passing the ball, it ranks second on the team. He also leads New England with seven red zone targets.
So, which bet do we back? It’s a matter of personal preference, but for me the answer is all of them. Bill Belichick is as smart as they come, so I expect the Patriots to target Henry early and often.
Feel free to back whichever Henry prop you see fit, but I'm going with receiving yards if forced to choose just one. The line remained at 30.5 as of Sunday night, and I’ve already gobbled it up. Once again, Arizona has allowed tight ends to exceed that amount in 10 of 12 games on the year. It’s impossible to ignore that trend, which is why I’m all in on Henry’s receiving yards.
Pick: Hunter Henry Over 30.5 Receiving Yards |
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically oad their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Dylan Wilkerson: While the Cardinals pass defense has improved from the beginning of the season, they still seem to have an issue defending one position: tight end.
Arizona is allowing the most pass yards and touchdowns in the league to tight ends this season, so there may be some value in Henry or Jonny Smith for this primetime matchup.
The Patriots tight ends split snaps, however Henry has seen more red-zone use this season than Jonnu Smith. Henry has two red-zone targets in the last two weeks and seven this season. The absence of Jakobi Meyers will only bolster Henry's target share.
The Cardinals have allowed touchdowns on 68.9% of their opponents red-zone trips this season. When the Patriots make it into enemy territory, expect them to target their 6-foot-5, 250-pound tight end.
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Tony Sartori: With Jakobi Meyers (concussion) ruled out, DeVante Parker elevates to the WR1 role for the Patriots. With Meyers constantly rotating on and off the field in last week's game against the Bills, Parker saw an increased role as he led all New England receivers in targets (four) outside of Meyers.
Although Parker did not do much with the increased looks (two catches for 16 yards), this game will be a good opportunity to buy low on him after a disappointing performance against a superior Buffalo secondary. Entering this contest, Arizona ranks 24th in the league in passing yards allowed per game.
While Parker is not as good as most of the opposing WR1s that the Cardinals have faced recently, the total is set too low at 39.5. Arizona has allowed opposing WR1s to record at least 40 receiving yards in six straight games.
The Cardinals secondary was a problem before the season even started with a weak personnel outside of Budda Baker. Pro Football Focus ranked Arizona's secondary as the sixth worst before this season started.
Parker is capable of exploding for a big play that could get him over this number in one shot. He hauled in a 40-yard catch two weeks ago in Minnesota, 43-yard catch against the Bears and 40-yard catch against Baltimore.
Parker has gone over this total multiple times this year with Meyers in the lineup, so he should have a good shot to do so as the No. 1 WR against a subpar Arizona secondary.
Pick: DeVante Parker Over 39.5 Receiving Yards |
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Sam Farley: There is a very good chance we see a tight end find the end zone tonight.
In 12 games this season, the Cardinals have allowed a league-high nine touchdowns to opposing tight ends, with the Patriots allowing one fewer.
That instantly alerts us to look for some potential value at TE, and the name that leaps out is Trey McBride. With Zach Ertz out for the season, he's taken that starting spot and seems to be growing in stature for the Cardinals.
Before Week 10, when Ertz got hurt, McBride got just three targets. In the past two weeks, McBride has seen seven targets while operating as the lead tight end.
McBride is becoming a key part of this offense and if he can replicate anything like the performances that we've seen from Ertz, then +800 for a touchdown is a great price.
Pick: Trey McBride ATD +800 |
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Billy Ward: The pricing on this prop at various books continues to be pretty haphazard. For instance, the Steelers vs. Ravens game with a lower total had a slightly higher line on the no side, despite that being the opposite of the true probabilities.
Either way, this one is still a solid value. Based on the 1.5-point spread and 43.5-point total, the true odds of the no side of the prop hitting are about +115. It should be a slower-paced game, with both teams in the bottom half of situation-neutral pace.
This one is currently only available on DraftKings. I'd take it down to +130, at which point the edge stops being big enough to be worth the bet.
