We can take advantage of Patriots vs. Cardinalsplayer props by using PrizePicks, which allows us to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states — including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here’s my PrizePicks card for Monday Night Football.
Kyler Murray
Over/Under 34.5 Pass Attempts
It’s that time of year when Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray fall off a cliff. It’s well documented that Kingsbury-led teams fall apart at the end of the year, and here we are.
That’s part of this handicap, but a very small part. This cap is primarily based on the Patriots defense.
New England has a dominant pass defense. Despite losing JC Jackson and Stephon Gilmore over the past few seasons, a new crop of defensive backs has sprouted in Foxboro.
From Kyle Dugger to Jonathan Jones to Adrian Phillips to Jalen Mills, the Patriots can defend the aerial attack with the best of them. New England is fourth in EPA per pass allowed and third in pass defense DVOA.
But the rush defense is much more suspect. The Patriots were great against the run game for half the season, but in the other half, the Pats allowed:
- 188 rush yards to the Ravens
- 199 rush yards to the Packers
- 243 rush yards to the Bears
- 132 rush yards to the Bills
Either way, the Cardinals should attack the Patriots on the ground instead of the air. Many other teams have, with the Patriots holding opponents to just 32 pass attempts per game.
This game should be low-volume for Murray.
Moreover, this game could be low-volume altogether. Arizona and New England both rank in the back half of the league in situation-neutral pace, and I don’t expect either team to blow out the other and create a weird high-volume game.
Pick: Under 34.5 pass attempts
Rhamondre Stevenson
Over/Under 33.5 Receiving Yards
With no Jakobi Meyers or Damien Harris, I’d expect a very healthy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson.
Stevenson is already carrying New England's offense. He has more than double the touches of any other Patriots player (217) and is the only one to exceed 600 scrimmage yards with his — checks notes — 1,117.
Stevenson also leads the team in receptions (56) and targets (67), although he lags behind DeVante Parker and Meyers regarding receiving yards.
But, again, there is no Meyers or Harris on Monday. We should see a whole lot of Stevenson.
But, again, that hasn’t been the problem. Stevenson has cashed over 33.5 receiving yards in four of his last six games, twice eclipsing 70. He’s averaging over 50 receiving yards per game over the last six weeks.
Arizona has a bad defense. The Cardinals are 32nd in completion percentage allowed (69.2%), 31st in pass attempts per game allowed (36.5) and 25th in passing yards per game allowed (245.4).
Moreover, the Cardinals are 30th in pass defense DVOA against running backs, allowing over seven pass attempts and 40 yards per game.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Stevenson with a mean of 39 receiving yards on Monday Night Football, giving us plenty of value at this PrizePicks number.
Pick: Over 33.5 receiving yards
