Every NFL weekend, there’s an angle or matchup to be exploited — whether through the spread, total or with player props. This also applies to the Anytime Touchdown market. Each week, I’ll go through every game on the slate to identify the players you should be considering to score ATDs, and see if the betting odds are worth the investment.
Below, I have three Patriots vs. Jaguars props for the second NFL London game of 2024.
Patriots vs. Jaguars Player Props
- Austin Hooper (+900, DraftKings)
- Trevor Lawrence (+480, Caesars)
Austin Hooper
Anytime Touchdown (+900)
Jacksonville's aggressive man coverage on defense has seemed to hinder it this year. The Jags defense is last in Pass DVOA and has allowed eight touchdowns to receivers (31st in NFL). They're also 30th in DVOA against tight ends with four touchdowns to the position, which also ranks last.
Quarterback Drake Maye is making his second start and while he’s still a rookie, it was encouraging to see him throw for three touchdowns in his debut with scores over 35 yards to Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte.
Ultimately, tight end Hunter Henry should be the main target and while his odds (+320) have value, I’m more intrigued with his counterpart — TE2 Austin Hooper at +900. Henry will surely see some looks in the end zone if the Patriots get inside the 20, but Hooper has seen at least three red-zone targets over the past three games and also scored a touchdown.
The Jaguars blitz at a top-10 rate in NFL (30.3%), so Hooper may need to be on the field to help block more than usual.
Trevor Lawrence
Anytime Touchdown (+480)
As I mentioned last week, I was kind of shocked that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence had only thrown for over 300 yards three times since the start of 2023 season. Then, I watched the game against the Bears and it all became clear.
Lawrence tried his best with 234 yards and two touchdowns to Gabe Davis, but this has been a season to forget for Lawrence and the Jaguars. They rank in the bottom five in the NFL in third-down-conversion rate and while they converted 46% vs the Bears, most of that was in a trailing game script.
When you look at what weakness the Jaguars could exploit against the Patriots defense, look no further than the running back Tank Bigsby. I’m not going to bet him at +100 odds, but it’s worth mentioning that the opposing RB1 has scored on the Patriots in five of six games.
With most of the Jaguars players with good matchups getting steamed, I’d rather just sprinkle a bit on Lawrence to rush for a touchdown at +480. The Jaguars are 0-6 and will likely be playing desperate. Lawrence has rushed for at least four touchdowns in each of the past two seasons and has finished with 14 red-zone carries in each season. This year, he has only one.
The risk of injury could be completely out the window for Lawrence, which means I had expected odds around +375.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Austin Hooper +900 | Sprinkle on Trevor Lawrence +480
