Raiders vs. Patriots Odds
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The undefeated Raiders will travel to Foxborough to take on the .500 Patriots.
I just needed to say that out loud because it still doesn't sound right. But it's true. The Raiders opened their season with a road win against the Panthers then backed it up with another victory against the Saints as they unveiled their new stadium in Las Vegas.
On the other hand, the Patriots came up one yard short in Seattle to drop to 1-1 on the young season. Let's take a closer look at this AFC matchup.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders rely on their very efficient offense to carry their weight. They feature an elite running back in Josh Jacobs (questionable), a superstar tight end in Darren Waller (questionable) and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. That's a very good foundation for an offense to go along with a veteran quarterback in Derek Carr.
The wide receivers are very young, but Vegas seems to have found something with Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards. And although Ruggs has been ruled out for Sunday, this offense can keep up with most teams in the NFL.
Conversely, the defense is one of the worst in the league. The Raiders struggle in two key areas: Getting to the quarterback and covering wide receivers. That's a nightmare combination in today's NFL as their extremely young corners aren't getting any help.
First-round draft pick Damon Arnette has really struggled at corner in his first two games and even got benched on Monday night. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther also doesn't get creative enough with his scheme to make up for the clear deficiencies of this unit.
In terms of Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Raiders finished 31st on defense and ninth on offense last season. This season? The defense ranks 30th and the offense 10th. It's just what this team is.
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New England Patriots
Coming into the season, I had major questions about the Patriots from health concerns surrounding new quarterback Cam Newton, an underwhelming group of wide receivers, a rebuilt defensive front and a number of key losses due to COVID-19 opt outs.
I ultimately didn't play the under on the Patriots' season win total out of respect for Bill Belichick, and that appears to have been a smart decision. The Patriots have looked very good so far this season, especially on offense. There are no health concerns with Newton after three surgeries in three years.
This offense should put up plenty of points in 2020.
The defense will likely take a step back due to turnover regression, personnel losses and stiffer competition, but it's still a solid group, especially on the back end.
The Matchup
This is a great matchup for the Patriots. They should be able to bully their way up and down the field with the run game against a soft Raiders defense. And when Newton wants to throw it, he should have all day to do so against the weak Vegas secondary.
Julian Edelman should have a huge day in the slot in a mismatch against Lamarcus Joyner. And Newton, who leads the NFL in completion percentage on throws 10 or more yards down field, should hit a few deep shots
New England should have no issues moving the ball, controlling the clock and putting up points.
The other side of the ball presents a tougher challenge for the Patriots, but I assume Belichick will take away the Raiders' biggest strengths as he does each week. That means all of the focus will go toward stopping Jacobs and Waller if they both suit up.
The rebuilt New England front seven will get its first real test against a rock solid offensive line this season, but Las Vegas does have some concerning injuries up front. Plus, I expect Belichick to load the box and bracket Waller, forcing Carr to win by throwing to his receivers.
The Patriots are one of the few teams that have enough coverage talent to leave their corners on islands in order to defend both Jacobs and Waller aggressively.
I'm sure Vegas will have some success moving the ball, but New England will force enough punts and field goals to win this game by at least a touchdown.
The Spot
What a beautiful situational spot to fade the Raiders, who improved to 2-0 with an emotional upset victory on Monday night. Now, on a short week, they must travel across the country for an early kick against a Patriots team coming off of a loss at Seattle.
Even if you ignore the early start and cross-country trip, the short week especially hurts the Raiders with the overall coaching mismatch in this one. It's also just generally tougher for the inferior team to head out on the road with one less day of preparation.
Since 2003, road underdogs of six or more points in this spot have gone 16-27-1 (37.2%) against the spread (ATS).
Plus, it's the perfect setup to bet a bitter Belichick, who owns a ridiculous 34-13 (72.3%) ATS mark for a cool 43.6% Return on Investment (ROI) after a straight-up loss since 2003. He's covered those games by a silly 5.73 points on average.
Imagine not betting on bitter bill the week after a loss. This man has already watched film of every Darren Waller snap since middle school three times in slow motion. pic.twitter.com/ok5CqxhlWe
— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) September 23, 2020
You also might imagine Belichick has exceeded oddsmakers' expectations more times than not in Foxborough. He's 79-52-6 (60.3%) ATS at home — covering by 3.37 points on average.
In both scenarios, he's been the most profitable coach to back of the 128 coaches in our Bet Labs database since 2003.
Raiders-Patriots Pick
I wouldn't bet this game if I based the decision solely on my raw power ratings. However, after adjusting for the matchup and spot, I saw enough value to bet the Patriots -6 (-110).
I'd play anything under seven and actually used the Patriots as my survivor pick in an ideal matchup and situational spot for New England.
The injury to center David Andrews does concern me some. He's great in the middle of that offensive line and the re-shuffling could cause some issues. That said, the injury report looks much worse for the Raiders, who will be without their starting left guard and right tackle in addition to Ruggs. And Waller and Jacobs are listed as questionable, but I do expect both to suit up.
PICK: Patriots -6
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