Patriots at Ravens Odds & Picks
- Odds: Patriots -3
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Baltimore Ravens will host the New England Patriots in a big AFC clash on primetime. Should you back the home underdogs, or roll with the reliable dynasty?
Our experts reveal how they're betting Sunday Night Football, complete with two spread picks and a player prop.
Stuckey: Ravens +3
I make this game a pick'em and love the matchup on both sides of the ball with the Ravens defensive scheme and elite rushing attack — you can read my full analysis here. As a result, I played Baltimore +4 earlier in the week and would happily take anything at +3 or better.
The Patriots could certainly win and cover again as I'm sure Bill Belichick will have something special in store for Lamar Jackson and Co. There's a reason the Patriots continually exceed market expectations and cover more than 62% of the time under Belichick, even with everyone wanting to bet them each week. But I trust the Ravens here and can't pass up the line value.
These teams have played plenty of big games against each other in the past, and they've been close battles more often than not. Expect another intriguing chess match and don't sleep on the special teams advantage the Ravens should hold, especially at kicker. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Mike Randle: Ravens +3
I am in full support of Stuckey on this one. The Patriots have been on a legendary run defensively, but have faced a less than stellar list of quarterbacks that includes Luke Falk, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Colt McCoy, Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. This game at Baltimore represents New England’s most difficult game this season.
No one has been able to stop Jackson, who is averaging 82.3 rushing yards per game. The Patriots pass defense has been superior, but they can be attacked on the ground. Baltimore ranks first overall in Football Outsiders' run offense DVOA.
The addition of Marcus Peters paid immediate dividends in the Ravens' Week 7 30-16 road win at Seattle. Peters gave Russell Wilson his first interception of the season, which he promptly returned for a touchdown.
The Patriots offensive woes have been masked by their defensive superiority — they rank only 20th in run offense DVOA. The offensive line has also been limited by injuries, ranking 21st in both pass protection and overall efficiency.
New England has enjoyed a fantastic season, greatly enhanced by a weak schedule. I will gladly grab the Ravens +3 coming off their bye in this ideal upset spot.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Randle: Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Passing TDs (-200)
The public is certainly concerned about the Patriots' stout pass defense, currently ranked second in pass defense DVOA. However, with an extra bye week to prepare for this game, look for Ravens head coach John Harbaugh to find creative ways to get Jackson's pass attack going.
While the Patriots have limited opposing quarterbacks to just two passing touchdowns, they have yet to face the dual-threat efficiency of Jackson. With explosive wide receiver Marquise Brown returning after an ankle sprain, Jackson will have his full complement of weapons to attack all areas of the field.
Jackson has thrown 11 touchdowns with Brown on the field and zero without him. Look for the rookie quarterback to find the end zone at least once on Sunday Night Football.
Our projection of 1.1 passing touchdowns is a full 60% over the implied total of 0.8. I'm betting this 10-rated prop even with the high juice. Since the start of the season, props with a grade of 10 have gone 139-88-3 (60.5% win rate).
