Patriots vs Steelers Picks | Thursday Night Football
The New England Patriots (2-10) head to Acrisure Stadium to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) on Thursday Night Football in a battle of struggling teams dealing with injuries and quarterback issues.
Pittsburgh is a 6-point favorite with the spread bouncing between 5.5 and 6.5 points. In addition, the total sits at 30, down from 32.5 on Sunday evening, which would be the lowest closing total since a Dec. 2005 contest between the Steelers and Chicago Bears.
This game also involves plenty of luck-based trends via our Action Network Luck Rankings, which is why I have Patriots vs Steelers picks on both the spread and total for my Thursday Night Football preview.
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How to Bet the Patriots vs. Steelers Spread: New England +6 (-110; FanDuel)
I'm siding with both luck-based trends in this one, so let's start with a play on the side. According to our Luck Rankings, the Patriots rank 29th while the Steelers are second, finally dropping from the top spot for the first time since Week 3.
That Luck Difference of 27 places fits our threshold of at least 24 places apart to be considered a luck-based matchup. However, an even more significant trend pops up when we look at the Luck Gap.
In Week 13 or later, if a game has a Luck Gap of at least 30%, the unlucky team covers with a record of 27-7-2 (77.8%), including a 15-1-1 (91.2%) ATS record if that team is the road team. That's an awfully strong trend pointing toward a Patriots cover.
Another trend favoring the Patriots — road 'dogs in games with a low total (below 38) cover at a 60.3% rate since 2009 in a 154-game sample size. That's likely for a couple reasons.
First, home-field advantage is probably overadjusted for in these low-total games. Second, in games with low totals, every point matters more, so a 6-point spread in this game is not the same as a 6-point spread in a high-total game. Any bit of variance, or luck regression, in the Patriots' favor strongly favors them covering.
I tend to agree, especially with the luck trends. New England has put up just 13 points over its last three games, making perception of them about as rock bottom as possible.
However, the Pats have been quite unlucky in those three games. For starters, they outgained each of their three opponents by an average of almost 52 yards per game. Despite scoring just 13 total points, they've managed to push or cover a 6-point spread in each one thanks to a defense that's allowed just 26 points.
When you're consistently outgaining your opponent, it shows you're capable of moving the ball. That's reflected in the Expected Score of these games, where the Patriots have been expected to put up an average of 14.5 PPG. Thus, the 13 total points is nearly 30 points below expectation, or 10 per game, in these three contests.
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Meanwhile, the average offensive DVOA of the three opponents they faced — the Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants and Los Angeles Chargers — is 19.3, which is close enough to the Steelers' offensive DVOA (No. 18) that it should be relatively representative.
It's abundantly clear the Patriots' main weakness has been their passing game, ranking just 29th in offensive pass DVOA. However, the drop-off from Mac Jones to Bailey Zappe is close to negligible given how bad the former has played this year. That is the area in which the Steelers' defense has been better as well, which means the Patriots could turn to their run game to move the ball.
On the ground, the Patriots could have success even without starter Rhamondre Stevenson. Ezekiel Elliott has actually had a better success rate than Stevenson despite 0.2 lower yards per carry. If Elliott is able to consistently churn out successful plays against a Steelers team that ranks midddle of the pack against the run, the Patriots could control the time of possession and yardage battle once again.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are the second-best team against the run, meaning they stand a good chance of stopping Pittsburgh's ground game. The Steelers may be without starting RB Najee Harris, but should have no trouble turning to Jaylen Warren, who has actually been more efficient, for some extra totes in his stead.
That said, it's a much bigger deal for New England to be able to stop the Steelers' ground attack than their passing game, given that Pittsburgh will be turning to backup QB Mitch Trubisky.
Trubisky may not be much of a drop-off from Kenny Pickett given that he had a better QBR and ANY/A than Pickett last year, but he's also at best a negligible upgrade. Thus, the Steelers' 20th-ranked pass attack shouldn't improve much, if any.
I'm rolling with the luck trends and backing the Patriots at +6.
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How to Bet the Patriots vs. Steelers Total: Over 30 (-105; DraftKings)
As mentioned, this game features the lowest total since Dec. 2005, but I believe this is an overreaction to a few factors.
The luck factor is the most prominent element in this. This game has a Luck Total of +5.4, putting it in Luck Over territory. Luck Overs have gone 33-18-1 (64.4%) to the over, including 3-1 this year and 2-0 in primetime.
The Patriots' last three games have featured a total of just 39 points. It's in the heads of the public that this is just the new norm for Patriots games. However, these games have had an average Expected Score of 30.1 PPG, which is conveniently right where the total sits.
I'm not so sure this should be the new normal, too. After all, the Patriots averaged 15 PPG prior to those three games, and an average offensive Expected Score of 16 points. And that came despite a harder schedule in those first nine games, where their opponents ranked 16th on average defensively, compared to 22nd on average in the most recent three-game stretch.
In other words, these 30-point expected totals from the last three games should be the absolute floor for this one.
I also think the specific injuries may help. As mentioned, the yards per carry from Stevenson to Elliott is a minimal dip, and the Patriots have actually had a higher success rate with Elliott.
There may also be a bit more upside with Zappe as he's had a higher yards per attempt and yards per completion. The downside is Zappe has had a higher sack rate than Jones, but only by about a percentage point, which isn't going to matter as much against a Steelers team that is league average in pressure rate.
On the Steelers side, Najee Harris popped up on the injury report, and if he's unable to go that could actually favor the over a bit more as well. That's because Warren will pick up the bulk of Harris' work, and he's just a more explosive player.
Warren has averaged more than a full yard per carry better than Harris in each of their two seasons together. That includes a higher success rate and explosive play rate in each. Warren is also the better pass-catcher, so he could potentially be an overall upgrade to the offense.
It's also possible Mitch Trubisky is a bit of an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Last year, Trubisky had the overall better metrics and Pickett hasn't shown any significant improvement this year.
Just like the side, I'm going to roll with the luck trends and take the over on the 30-point total.
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