Patriots at Texans Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Patriots -3
- Over/Under: 47
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Saturday evening.
Public bettors are having little issue backing the New England Patriots as road favorites with 75% of tickets coming in on Tom Brady and Co. to cover the 3-point spread against the Houston Texans.
Should you follow the public's lead?
Our experts analyze this Sunday Night Football showdown, complete with a staff pick.
Sunday Night Football Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Texans
The Texans are in good shape (for the most part). Willer Fuller (hamstring) has been removed from the injury report while every other player on it got in limited or full practices so are trending in the right direction. The lone exception is offensive lineman Tytus Howard (knee), who is listed as doubtful.
It's nearly impossible to decipher which players on the Patriots' injury report will be in our out. They're notorious for listing an abundance of players as questionable, and their entire team apparently is sick. They have 12 main players on their injury report, and seven are questionable due to illness.
Phillip Dorsett (head), Mohamed Sanu (ankle) and Julian Edelman (shoulder) are questionable with something other than an illness. Edelman has been playing through his shoulder injury, so we should pay the most attention to Dorsett and Sanu. — Justin Bailey
Biggest Mismatch
Bill Belichick vs. Bill O'Brien
Jason Garrett isn't the only coach in the state of Texas who Belichick has a huge edge against.
Belichick's brilliance shows through in a dominant 178-119-7 against the spread record since 2003. His former assistant O'Brien, meanwhile, lacks the attention to detail and game planning expertise to match that type of performance, particularly against winning teams.
In his career, O'Brien is just 13-23-1 ATS against winning teams, per our Bet Labs data. — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Patriots -3.5
- Projected Total: 44.5
Expert Pick
Stuckey: Texans +3
Look, I don't like fading excellence either, but this Patriots offense is far from excellent right now.
Why? Well, for a variety of reasons:
- The offensive line play isn't as stellar as in years past, partly due to injuries.
- The running game is nonexistent. (They rank 21st in Football Outsiders' rush offense DVOA.)
- The passing game lacks explosiveness and any type of vertical component.
You can't really blame the Patriots for all of these problems as they've had a rotating carousel of receivers and tight ends on a week-to-week basis and sorely miss Rob Gronkowski. Brady is also a year older and dealing with what looks like a real elbow issue. But the timing is off with this offense.
Now, I'm sure they’ll figure it out come playoff time. Ultimately, they have future Hall-of-Famers at coach and quarterback, as well as the NFL's best offensive line coach, and should keep building continuity as they find their identity. But until I see otherwise, I have to assume it's still broken.
It's odd to say these things about a team with only one loss, but a spectacularly easy schedule has enabled them to mask some of these issues. Even the special teams isn't as elite as usual: New England recently moved on to another kicker just this week.
From a matchup perspective, I think Deshaun Watson can give the Patriots defense some issues with his legs, similar to what Lamar Jackson and many other mobile quarterbacks before him did against the man-heavy Patriot defenses.
I think the Texans can also have success running the ball right at a vulnerable Patriots run defense. And don’t sleep on a healthy Fuller, who will bring a much-needed dangerous speed element to the Texans offense.
The Texans defense misses J.J. Watt up front and they have a very poor secondary, but I haven't seen enough from Brady and Co. through the air just yet to be too concerned. There’s a reason Brady's 34% completion percentage when under pressure ranks dead last among 29 quarterbacks with a minimum of 250 snaps this season. That stat summarizes so many problems with the offensive line, injuries on the outside and the overall timing of the offense.
I know Belichick owns O'Brien and the coaching mismatch is severe, which does scare me, but this Pats offense is getting too much respect in the market as a road favorite of 3 (or more). The Texans should also benefit situationally with extra prep and rest while staying home after a Thursday night win over the Colts.
I took the home pup here at +3.5 but like it down to +3.
