Once you're stuffed with food, it'll be time to sit back and close your evening with Patriots vs. Vikings.
These picks have been made by using Action Labs' projections.
Click here to access Action Labs for full access to Sean Koerner's projections, which show edges on more than just these two props for Patriots vs. Vikings.
Adam Thielen
Over 3.5 Receptions (+100, BetMGM)
From a volume perspective, this is a pretty easy pick to make.
In eight of the Vikings’ 10 games this season, Thielen has had at least seven targets. In seven of those contests, Thielen has gone over this total.
Thielen has 45 catches on 67 targets, which is a 67.2% catch rate. That means if he gets seven targets, chances are he’ll get at least four catches.
Last week, Thielen only had two catches on three targets for 25 yards. I’m willing to let that one pass since literally nothing went right for the Vikings in a 37-point loss to the Cowboys.
Action Labs projects Thielen for 4.4 receptions on Thanksgiving against the Patriots. At BetMGM, this is a plus-money prop, making it a no-brainer.
Hunter Henry
Over 2.5 Receptions (+154, FanDuel)
Henry is only projected for 2.6 receptions by Action Labs, but the over is +154 at FanDuel. That means this is surely worth a bet. That implies there’s a 39.4% chance he goes over, although our numbers say it’s much closer to even.
Henry has gone over this total three times in the Patriots’ last six games. Oddly enough, all three of those games saw the Pats win by more than 20 points.
Henry saw his snap count skyrocket when Jonnu Smith was out, but he is still playing the majority of offensive plays. Henry played 84% of snaps last week against the Jets.
At a big plus number like this, bettors should trust the numbers and back Henry for three catches (at least).
Pick: Hunter Henry Over 2.5 Receptions |
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