Eagles vs. Bears Odds
If you enjoy watching offenses attack on the ground, this is the game for you. The Bears and Eagles feature the first and third highest offensive rush rate respectively, and both rank inside the top eight in rush offense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
It’s no secret both quarterbacks in this game stress the defense in a way very few in this league can, as Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts have combined for nearly 1,600 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground this season.
The Bears, however, do not have the personnel to slow down the Eagles offense, and I do not expect the weather to be enough of a hindrance to end the streak of overs involving Chicago.
Eagles vs. Bears Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Eagles and Bears match up statistically:
Eagles vs. Bears DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 32 | |
| Pass DVOA | 4 | 31 | |
| Rush DVOA | 1 | 29 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 21 | 7 | |
| Pass DVOA | 27 | 2 | |
| Rush DVOA | 9 | 24 | |
The Bears defense has played poorly this season, but over their past four games, they were historically awful.
Chicago is last in the NFL in both overall defense and pass defense DVOA. On the season, it ranks 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.7); the unit struggles to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable in the slightest, ranking 30th in adjusted sack rate at 4.9%.
Bet Philadelphia vs. Chicago at FanDuel
Jalen Hurts has never thrown the football more confidently and efficiently than he currently is now, and no quarterback has a higher passer rating from a clean pocket than him (118.0). The extra preparation will not be enough for the Bears defense to keep the Eagles under the 33.7 points per game they have averaged over their previous seven contests.
The Bears defense has allowed 2.71 points per drive since Week 7, surrendering a touchdown on 34.8% of possessions (per Sharp Football). Both of those marks rank last in the NFL over that span.
During their six-game losing streak, the defense accounted for only four sacks. Their tackling in the open field was atrocious, bad news for a unit that will have to keep A.J. Brown and the returning Dallas Goedert in check. Both Brown and Goedert rank in the top 15 in yards after catch, with exactly 750 yards combined.
The Eagles rush defense has undoubtedly improved over the past few weeks, but I am not quite sold on them quite yet. Both the Giants and Titans ground attacks had major issues heading into their respective games with the Eagles; Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon rushed for 107 yards on 20 carries against them in Week 12.
On the season, Philly's defense ranks 24th in rush defense DVOA and will have to face the most explosive running quarterback in the game. Fields should be back to full health, which is great news for the league's top rushing attack in terms of yardage, as no team is within 300 rush yards of the Bears. This will clearly be an entirely different type of test for the Eagles' front seven.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 22nd against the run on first down according to DVOA — Chicago ranks 30th. Offensively, the Eagles boast the best first-down rushing offense, while the Bears are ninth in the same category.
Do not expect many long down and distance situations in this game. Both offenses will be able to stay ahead of the sticks, with the Bears specifically needing to as they don’t want to be dropping Fields back against a defensive unit that leads the league in both sacks and interceptions.
Betting Picks
The winds on Sunday will be between 10-15 mph, which may affect a few deep balls but otherwise not factor in much at all.
The Bears offense made major strides earlier in the season when they had their mini-bye following a 12-7 loss to the Commanders on Thursday Night Football in Week 6 (the last time a Bears game went under the total). They proceeded to score over 30 points in four straight games before Fields banged up his shoulder against the Falcons.
In fact, whenever this version of the Bears has faced another top offensive team, they were able to keep pace on the scoreboard — 29 in Dallas, 32 versus Miami and 20 versus Detroit. With the possibility of another 35-plus-point offensive explosion by the Eagles, I am comfortably playing the over and expect this game to cruise beyond 50 points easily.
Pick: Over 48 | Bet to 49 |
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