Cowboys vs Eagles Odds
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +162 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -195 |
Jalen Hurts may not be starting for Philadelphia on Saturday, but Eagles-Cowboys remains one of the highest-profile matchups on the NFL Christmas Eve schedule.
So, let's find our Cowboys vs Eagles pick.
Philadelphia has all but clinched the NFC East and home field advantage throughout the playoffs — a win on Saturday would officially seal it. Dallas is most likely locked into the five seed and will be hoping to notch a statement victory and get healthy for a potential January rematch.
Philadelphia won the first meeting at home against the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. Now, Dallas has a chance for revenge against the Eagles and their backup quarterback, Gardner Minshew.
Now, onto this week's Cowboys vs Eagles pick.
The line moved heavily in Dallas' favor with the Hurts injury. Dallas was a one-point favorite at open on Sunday night but steamed as high as six after news of Hurts' shoulder injury. The market has moved back toward the Eagles as of Friday, and they've settled in as a modest underdog of 4-4.5 points.
Even without Hurts in the lineup, though, there are paths to success for this Eagles offense, and there should be plenty of points on Saturday in Dallas.
Cowboys vs Eagles Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Cowboys and Eagles match up statistically:
Cowboys vs Eagles DVOA Breakdown
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 2 | 3 | |
| Pass DVOA | 7 | 4 | |
| Rush DVOA | 1 | 10 | |
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Overall DVOA | 15 | 7 | |
| Pass DVOA | 15 | 2 | |
| Rush DVOA | 5 | 20 | |
Philadelphia's biggest advantage all season long has been its rushing offense and dominant offensive line. The Cowboys can be run on and have a very undersized defensive front. When the Eagles last faced the Cowboys, Philly's run offense and dominance at the line of scrimmage allowed them to move the ball efficiently.
Hurts' mobility is a big part of it, but they can be dominant without him, too. The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing success rate by a full four percentage points over the next team. The Cowboys defense is 10th in rushing EPA allowed and has been trending downward considerably in the last month.
Bet Philadelphia vs. Dallas at FanDuel
The Cowboys defense as a whole has also struggled to stop teams from moving the ball on them. The Texans and Jaguars both moved the chains and down the field, and even a poor Colts offense was successful over the first three quarters. The Cowboys run defense has been below average since Week 10, and the pass defense is 10th in the same time frame by EPA allowed.
Minshew might not have the deep accuracy Hurts has, but the Dallas secondary is also dealing with injuries to its Nos. 2 and 3 corners. The Cowboys like to take risks in the secondary and gamble to force turnovers, but can be susceptible to big plays as well.
As much as the Dallas defense has struggled in the last month, the offense has been dominant since Dak Prescott returned from injury. Since Week 6, Prescott is top three in EPA per play. The Cowboys offense is top five in both passing and rushing efficiency in that same time frame. The offense should find success against the Eagles run-funnel defensive scheme that is one of the worst rush defenses on early downs.
A lot of the Eagles' defensive success has been built on playing from ahead, which they're not as likely to do in this game. That should make them more vulnerable against the run.
The Cowboys also throw a ton of isolation routes to the intermediate and middle of the field, taking advantage of Prescott's elite processing and accuracy. Given that Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon runs a two-deep scheme that allows intermediate and over-the-middle throwing, the Cowboys shouldn't have much of an issue moving the ball.
Betting Picks
The total in this game sat at 50.5 on the lookahead and has come down 3-4 points following news that Hurts would not play. I'm going to buy the over at a lower price now because both offenses still have paths to success.
Minshew may not be as effective or consistent as Hurts, but he's also plenty volatile. He's more likely to make a turnover or really bad play under pressure than Hurts, which could produce a Dallas short field.
The lacking talent in the Dallas wide receiver room and the design of the offense has also led to Prescott throwing into more tight windows than any other year in his career. That's a major reason why his interceptions are up, and Philadelphia has been very opportunistic defensively in forcing turnovers.
At the end of last season, Philadelphia rested its entire lineup, and the Eagles still moved the ball somewhat consistently on the Cowboys defense. It's a high quality offensive system, and Minshew should get them to at least 20 points.
From that point, I expect Dallas to continue its offensive success under Prescott against a Philadelphia defense that wants to be vanilla and not show anything schematically against a potential playoff rival.
