The Eagles and Commanders will face off in the NFC Championship Game at 3 p.m. ET from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The game will be live on FOX.
The Eagles are 6-point favorites at most sportsbooks, and the game total is set at 47.5 at most shops. The consensus moneyline odds have Philadelphia at -275 to win outright and Washington at +225.
Let's get into our NFL predictions for Eagles vs. Commanders.
Eagles vs. Commanders Predictions: Expert Picks
Eagles vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Total
- Spread: Eagles -6
- Total: 47 points scored
- Moneyline: Eagles -290, Commanders +235
Odds via bet365 as of 9:50 a.m. ET.
Against the Spread Pick
By John LanFranca
The Commanders offense is playing with an abundance of confidence, and it should feel great about its chances of pulling the upset. The Washington offense has thrived on the road this season, so I'm not worried about Jayden Daniels playing in Philly since he seems unshakable.
One underrated aspect of the Commanders offense is its run blocking. Three Commanders lineman rank in the top 10 at their position in run block win rate, according to ESPN data, the only team in the league to have more than two players ranking that high. As a team, Washington ranked second as a unit in run block win rate, which shouldn't surprise anyone considering how much faith Dan Quinn has in his offense to move the line of scrimmage in short-yardage situations.
In their Week 16 victory over the Eagles, the Commanders converted 54% of third-down attempts and were 2-of-3 on fourth. In fact, despite giving up over 200 rushing yards to the Eagles offense, the Washington offense actually ran for more first downs and converted key situations at a much higher rate than did the Eagles.
The Commanders won't win this game by holding the Eagles to 24 or fewer points. If they win, it will be like last week, on the back of another Daniels master class. I think he's up for it, partly because the Eagles defensive metrics may be inflated.
The Eagles were out-gained by the Rams 402-350 last week. Philly was out-gained by the Ravens in Week 13, 372-252, with Lamar Jackson rushing for 79 yards on 9.9 yards per carry. In Week 14, the Panthers out-gained the Eagles 302-292. And, of course, Washington topped Philly in total yards and yards per play in Week 16.
The Philadelphia defense is very good, but it's not invincible. There's evidence that in the right matchup, opposing offenses can thrive against the Eagles. The Commanders offense is red hot, confident and aggressive. I will gladly take my chances the Eagles fail to win by a noteworthy margin here.
Over/Under Prediction
By John LanFranca
It is no secret what the Eagles are going to want to do offensively here. Their ground attack has carried them the entire season, and there's no reason to think the Commanders can stop them. In both meetings with Washington this season, Philly gained more than 200 yards on the ground on more than five yards per carry.
The Commanders defense simply does not have the personnel defensively to slow down the Eagles offense. No defense surrendered more yards per play than Washington in the Wild Card Round, then it gave up a league-high 7.3 yards per play in the Divisional Round.
The Commanders offense, led by Jayden Daniels, is an extremely aggressive unit. Dan Quinn has consistently shown his willingness to gamble, which has paid off in recent weeks. Regardless, an aggressive unit is usually good for bettors backing the over. Instead of settling for field goals, Washington will push for touchdowns. If Daniels gets them into the fringe of field goal range but fails to convert on fourth down, that's a short field for the Eagles offense.
The Commanders led the NFL in points per drive on the road during the regular season and also are first in the postseason. Washington also led the NFL in no-huddle plays ran this season. As we saw in the Divisional Round, when the Rams were forced to play with tempo, the Eagles defense struggled to stop Matthew Stafford on the final two drives of the game.
Philadelphia is second in the NFL in the rate of no-huddle used offensively. Last week, it averaged a full yard per play more when it didn't huddle, meaning it's reasonable to expect more of the same up-tempo play.
Not counting special teams snaps, these teams' Week 16 matchups saw 135 total plays run. The Commanders defense will not hold up on Sunday under this type of game script, having allowed 29.5 points per game in their first two matchups with the Eagles. I expect Daniels to make enough plays to get this over the key number of 48.
Player Props
Jayden Daniels Over 21.5 Completions (-104)
Jayden Daniels has gone over this number in all eight of his last full games played. What I really like is that in that span he also played the Eagles twice, going over in each of those games with 22 and 24 completions.
The weather looks good for Sunday with no snow in the forecast like last week in Philadelphia. At such good odds, this looks like a great bet as Washington is expected to be in a trailing game script in this one.
A.J. Brown Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
By Charlie Wright
I made the case against Philly's passing game in the Jalen Hurts writeup, so I won't go into it again. Brown has those same concerns working against him, but the coverage matchup might be more interesting.
Washington played man at the 6th-highest rate (36.1%) during the regular season. They used two high safety looks just 45.9% of the time. In the postseason, however, they've pivoted hard in the other direction. The Commanders have played zone more than 75% of the time through two playoff games. They've used two high safeties 65.2% of the time.
This coverage adjustment is bad news for Brown. He's one of the best receivers in the league against man coverage, but he's barely even the best receiver on his own team when facing zone and two high safety looks. Brown had an insane 41.3% target share against men in the regular season. He rewarded Hurts with a ridiculous 4.53 yards per route run. Against zone, Brown's target share falls to 25.5%, slightly ahead of DeVonta Smith (23.3%). His yards per route run falls to 2.60. Still solid, but not the elite mark he has against men. When facing two high safeties, Smith actually leads the team in target share, and Dallas Goedert paces the Eagles in targets per route run. Brown has posted 2.22 yards per route run against two high safety looks.
Brown went off for eight catches and 97 yards the last time these teams played, but that was before the coverage adjustment. Washington actually played more men than usual in that matchup (47.4%). Kenny Pickett also played the majority of the game, as Hurts left early with a concussion. I'm not suggesting Pickett is a better passer than Hurts, just that it's hard to put too much stock into that Week 17 matchup. Multiple factors will have changed when these two teams meet against this weekend.
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Jayden Daniels ATD (+205)
By Grant Neiffer
Jayden Daniels continues to run the ball early and often in the playoffs, with 16 and 13 rushing attempts in the 2 games.
Here, Daniels has a tough matchup vs. the Eagles, but I expect him to have a lot of designed running plays and to take off scrambling a lot. He had multiple rushing attempts in the red zone in the last two games, and I expect him to continue that here.
