Colts vs Steelers Pick, Prediction
My NFL pick for Colts vs. Steelers is targeting the total. The market rates these two teams as equal on a neutral field, but both of these defenses are healthier than anticipated right now and this over/under is too high as a result.
This is the highest-leverage game for both teams of the entire NFL slate in Week 15 as it has serious playoff implications in the AFC. Our Luck Rankings have the Steelers and Colts as the Nos. 2 and 3 most-fortunate teams in the NFL.
Let's break down the matchup and make a Colts vs. Steelers prediction.
Colts vs. Steelers Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Colts vs. Steelers Prediction
Grover Stewart, the Colts' best run stopper, returned from a six-game suspension last week and the defense returned to its excellent numbers against the run. Indianapolis' defense was a bottom-five unit against the run while Stewart was out suspended, but Cincinnati ran for just 3.5 yards per carry in its win against the Colts.
The injury news continues to improve for the Colts defense as rookie standout CB JuJu Brents returned to practice and will be fully available on Saturday. The Bengals had an elite offensive game plan and used creativity to get their elite playmakers in space to exploit the holes in the Colts defense. Browning completed five passes down the field at least 10 yards, and three were over the middle.
The Steelers don't use the middle of the field well, the play designs don't scheme receivers open and Pittsburgh has been a mess offensively outside of one game this season.
The Colts defense in the trench looks like a considerably improved unit given its top-10 grades in pass rush win rate and Stewart and DeForest Buckner powered a top-10 run defense in the first half of the season.
The Steelers come into this game having played last Thursday night, so the extra rest could mean Mason Rudolph is more of an option to take over for Mitch Trubisky if the offense continues to struggle.
Colts vs. Steelers Picks at FanDuel
The Colts offense's complete inability to run the ball on early downs against the Bengals spells trouble for this matchup. Indianapolis averaged 2.6 yards per carry and Jonathan Taylor remains out another week after getting thumb surgery.
The biggest run play that the Colts produced last week came back on a controversial holding penalty, but dropping back Gardner Minshew a lot in this matchup against pass-rushers Alex Highsmith and T.J. Watt feels like a dangerous recipe. Indianapolis will be without right tackle Braden Smith, which could make pass protection even more difficult against the two pass rushers, who both were full participants in practice on Thursday.
The Steelers struggle defending the middle of the field, particularly covering tight ends and running backs in the passing game. The Colts aren't equipped to exploit that.
Colts vs. Steelers Prediction
Despite all of the injuries in the secondary and Stewart's suspension, the Colts defense is 13th in yards allowed per drive and 27th in points per drive. The defense has been terrible in the red zone this year, and a matchup with an uncreative and mediocre red-zone offense like Pittsburgh's could be a good get-right spot. There's positive regression coming for Indianapolis and if the run defense improves, you'd expect the red zone defense to marginally improve, as well.
A Colts under has been quite dangerous this season because the Colts are second in overall pace under first-year head coach Shane Steichen, but all of the injury news helps the defense and as a result, this total should be below 42.
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