Betting odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: Steelers -5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: Though the Steelers are getting more than 68% of bets at the time of writing, the line has not been moving in their favor against the downtrodden Jags (see live betting data here).
After opening at +6, the Jags have actually dropped to +5.5 a couple of times and reached as low as +5 thanks to some sharp action earlier in the week.
I wouldn’t be shocked for the Steelers to make a push toward the key number of -7, but nothing suggesting that move has happened … yet. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Pittsburgh has won and covered five consecutive games. On average, the Steelers (6-3 against the spread) are covering the spread by 5.2 points per game.
Since 2003, it has been profitable to fade teams that have covered the spread on average by five or more points after the first month of the season: 369-296-18 (56%) ATS, per our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
The Steelers played on Thursday Night Football last week and now have 10 days of rest before facing the Jaguars on Sunday.
A popular question this week will be if Big Ben and the Steelers have an advantage with extra rest. A quick answer: No. In Roethlisberger’s career, he is 17-18 ATS on at least 10 days of rest. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Pittsburgh’s Pass Defense vs. Blake Bortles
The Steelers haven’t lost since September and the Jags haven’t won since then, either, and a big reason is that the Steelers figured out how to stop the pass while Blake Bortles didn’t figure out how to stop being Blake Bortles.
Over that span, the Steelers have allowed the fewest net yards per pass attempt in the league (5.2) while the Jags rank 22nd on offense (5.9).
The recent return of Leonard Fournette and acquisition of Carlos Hyde should help take some pressure off of Bortles, but those two have combined for only 2.6 yards per carry on 53 carries for Jacksonville this season while Pittsburgh has also played shutdown run defense since Week 5, limiting opponents to 3.89 yards per carry. — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Steelers
The Jaguars placed their starting center Brandon Linder (knee) on the injured reserve list. They could also be without tackles Josh Walker (foot, ankle) and Ereck Flowers (knee) on offense, while the defense isn’t guaranteed to have either defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (triceps) or stud cornerback A.J. Bouye (calf).
James Conner (concussion) is fully expected to suit up after getting in full practices on Wednesday and Thursday, but right tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) and defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt (elbow) might be operating at less than 100% if they’re ultimately able to suit up Sunday.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Bortles could be in for a long game against a Steelers defense that loves to send pressure, ranking third in pressure rate and sixth in adjusted sack rate.
Linder going on IR certainly won't help, either: He was PFF’s No. 6 center in pass-blocking and had allowed only two sacks, three hits and eight pressures this season.
The Steelers cost just $2,900 on DraftKings and $3,800 on FanDuel. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Jaguars +5
This line appears to be a trap in an attempt to catch the public overreacting to two teams going in opposite directions.
The Jaguars have now lost five straight games and are 0-4-1 ATS during that stretch, while the Steelers have won five straight, covering the spread in all of them.
After the 52-21 beatdown the Steelers put on the Panthers on national TV last Thursday, they have officially entered the Super Bowl contender conversation.
Taking them -5 this week seems like a no-brainer — if only sports betting were that easy.
My updated power ratings have this being closer to Steelers -3.5. The point of the sportsbook’s line is to try to split the action evenly, so while I would agree that -3.5 would be hammered to oblivion, I think it’s a better actual line.
The Jaguars still have one of the best defensive units in the NFL and should get Bouye back this week.
Fournette returned last week and seemed pretty close to 100%. Despite “good” Bortles showing up the past couple weeks, having Fournette back will let the Jaguars hide their volatile QB and attempt to win on the backs of their defense.
Take the points. — Sean Koerner
Bet to watch: Under 47
Since 2014, when wide receiver Antonio Brown and running back Le’Veon Bell kicked off the golden age of scoring in Pittsburgh with the first of their All-Pro campaigns, the Steelers have have been great at Heinz Field and horribly subpar on the road.
Over the past four-plus years, Steelers' away games have a 10-26 over/under record, which is good for a 41.8% return on investment for under bettors (per Bet Labs). In fact, the Steelers have been the most profitable road team for under bettors in that time, churning out a winning season each year during this span.
The Jags are still more than capable on defense and expected to get back Bouye (calf), a shutdown cornerback who has missed the past two games.
I’d be comfortable betting this down to 45. — Matthew Freedman
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
