The Pittsburgh Steelers start the 2024 NFL season against the Atlanta Falcons, with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
The Falcons are now up to 4-point favorites (-4) against the Steelers on Sunday, with Atlanta -200 on the moneyline and Pittsburgh +165 to pull off the upset. The over/under is 42 total points scored across the board.
The total is the most important line there, at least for the purposes of my NFL predictions for Week 1. It's time for my Steelers vs. Falcons prediction.
Both teams enter the season with a new starting quarterback after uneasy seasons at the position last year.
Kirk Cousins in the man for the Falcons (7-10) now, with a potentially lethal offense surrounding him with the likes of Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Russell Wilson was named the starting quarterback for the Steelers (10-7), but his status is up in the air as he deals with a calf injury that might get Justin Fields the start.
Steelers vs Falcons Picks
SPREAD
I have no pick on the Steelers-Falcons spread.
MONEYLINE
As I'm not betting the spread, I'm also avoiding the moneyline.
TOTAL
This is where my bet is, targeting the under.
Steelers vs. Falcons Pick: Under 42
Steelers vs. Falcons Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 42 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 42 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Steelers vs. Falcons Point Spread: Steelers +3.5 | Falcons -3.5
- Steelers vs. Falcons Total: Over/Under 42
- Steelers vs. Falcons Moneyline: Steelers +165 | Falcons -200
- 71% of bets and 45% of the money are on Steelers to cover the spread.
- 87% of bets and 39% of the money are on the over.
- 76% of bets and 46% of the money on the moneyline are on the Falcons.
How To Watch Pittsburgh vs. Atlanta
| Location: | Merecedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. |
| Date: | Sunday, Sept. 8 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Falcons vs. Steelers is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET live from Atlanta on Sunday. The game is live on FOX and other streaming platforms, such as YouTube TV.
How To Make NFL Picks for My Week 1 Prediction
This is a frustrating matchup to have in Week 1 because I was so eager to fade both of these teams early. Both are overrated in the market and both have a similar unknown problem at quarterback.
The Falcons spent big on Kirk Cousins, but we haven't even seen him yet. Cousins is on a new team in a new scheme with new weapons and a new coaching staff, and he's coming off a torn Achilles to his plant foot under a year ago and playing against a perennially great Steelers defense with a mean pass rush that could give Atlanta's pass blocking problems.
The Steelers decided on Russell Wilson but now could end up playing Justin Fields with Wilson struggling through a calf injury. Neither QB fits Arthur Smith's system well with their inability to attack the middle of the field. Pittsburgh should run much better than pass this season but Atlanta's run defense was good last season, and it looks like the Steelers will likely be without LT Troy Fautanu and LG Isaac Seumalo.
For years, Mike Tomlin road unders have been a cash cow. At 80-56-1 lifetime (59%), he's the most profitable coach in our BetLabs system. That includes 67% in the first 10 games of the season, and he's only gone over four times in the last 25 road games so the trend is only getting stronger. Now we likely get Russell Wilson, at 56-40 to the under on the road for his career (58%), second-most profitable only to Ben Roethlisberger, aka Tomlin.
This is a trend match made in heaven: Tomlin and Russ road unders.
I just have a hard time seeing either of these teams scoring much in Week 1. Expect a slog and a battle for every point, and take the under.
Pick: Under 42
