Steelers vs Ravens Prediction, Pick | NFL Week 18 Odds
My Steelers vs Ravens prediction and pick targets a Najee Harris player prop in a game that has Pittsburgh installed as a 3-point favorite on the spread with an over/under of 33.5 total points.
This NFL Week 18 AFC North rivalry game is a bit unusual. The Ravens have already locked up the first seed in the AFC, so this contest is meaningless for them in terms of the playoffs. Unsurprisingly, they have a number of key inactives that include: Lamar Jackson, Odell Beckham Jr., Marlon Humphrey, Kevin Zeitler, Zay Flowers, Kyle Hamilton and Malik Harrison. Taking over for Jackson under center is backup QB Tyler Huntley.
The Steelers, however, still have hopes of crashing the NFL playoffs. They'll need help on Sunday to make it, but that's not possible if they can't knock off their division rivals.
Steelers vs Ravens Prediction
Steelers vs Ravens Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 33.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 33.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Steelers vs. Ravens Preview
When the Steelers have the ball
Kenny Pickett is healthy enough to return to action, but the Steelers are sticking with Mason Rudolph, who has led them to two straight wins and has looked impressive in the process.
One of the key things Rudolph has done is unlock George Pickens’ massive upside. The second-year wideout has gone for 4/195/2 and 7/131/0 in Rudolph’s two starts.
Weather could impact this game as we could see a mix of rain and snow, with winds around 15-plus mph. As a result, I expect the Steelers to have a more conservative, run-heavy gameplan that leans on running backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
The Ravens have the first seed secured and are expected to rest a handful of players. CB Marlon Humphrey has already been ruled out and I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle Hamilton (questionable) is, too. LBs Roquan Smith and/or Patrick Queen could be limited or ruled out as well. All we can do is speculate until we get confirmation, but I’m under the assumption that the Ravens will be very cautious.
The Steelers will have a much easier matchup playing mainly second stringers on an otherwise stout Ravens defense.
Steelers vs. Ravens Picks | FanDuel
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When the Ravens have the ball
Lamar Jackson has been ruled out and Tyler Huntley is getting the start. Huntley is nowhere near as talented as Jackson, but the backup has an extensive history of doing an adequate job when needed. However, he will be doing so without many of the Ravens’ top weapons.
Odell Beckham Jr. has been ruled out and Zay Flowers is listed as doubtful. Mark Andrews remains on IR, so it’s critical for Isaiah Likely to maintain his health. Likely is not listed on the injury report, but I imagine Baltimore will want to protect him by limiting his snaps or outright resting him.
The Ravens are simply trying to come out of this game with no key players getting injured. Sure, they may want to play spoiler against a divisional rival – and I expect whatever players get playing time will give max effort – but a Ravens loss would make it tougher for the Bills to make the playoffs, which, in the grand scheme of things, would be ideal for Baltimore's chances of making it to the Super Bowl.
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Steelers vs. Ravens Pick & Prediction
This is a classic Week 18 matchup where one team has a do-or-die playoff mindset while the other essentially has a preseason game. It may seem wild that the Steelers are 3-point favorites on the road against a top-two Super Bowl contender, but I think it makes sense. As a result, this isn’t the market I’m looking to bet on as there is too much uncertainty to feel great about either side.
As usual, I think the best value currently lies with a player prop.
I mentioned that we could see some ugly weather in this game. It’s going to make both teams lean on the run game a bit more.
The Steelers have been an extreme run-heavy team in Mason Rudolph’s two starts, rushing the ball at a ridiculous 64% rate in neutral situations (the next-closest team is the Bears at 43%). That’s led to Najee Harris seeing 19 and 27 rush attempts over the last two games.
Harris has been a workhorse back on early downs (the most-likely downs to see a run play), while Jaylen Warren has dominated third downs (passing situations). Because of this, Harris has only run a route on 15% of Rudolph’s dropbacks over the last two games. He hasn’t even seen a target since Week 14.
Harris is in the game for one reason and one reason only: running the ball.
I think he has a much higher floor in this market than usual. With the must-win situation and a Ravens team that is resting key players, he should have the game script required to see at least 16 rush attempts.
I’m projecting Harris’ median closer to 16.5. This is a market where every rush attempt is massive as I have him finishing with 16 rush attempts around 10% of the time. Therefore, I’m projecting him with around a 60% chance to clear 15.5.
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