The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) and Baltimore Ravens (9-5) will face off in NFL Week 16. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. EST from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. The game will be broadcast live on FOX and can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The Ravens are 7-point favorites over the Steelers on the spread (Ravens -7) with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. Baltimore is a -305 favorite to win outright, while Pittsburgh is +245 to pull off the upset.
The Steelers lost 27-13 to the Eagles last week. Pittsburgh only gained 163 yards of offense and got 10 first downs against Philadelphia. The Ravens won 35-14 over the Giants last week. Lamar Jackson was 21-of-25 for 290 passing yards and 5 touchdowns.
Let's get into my Ravens vs Steelers predictions and NFL picks for this Saturday.
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction, Picks
Spread
This matchup has historically been profitable for the underdog, so I'm not going against that.
Mike Tomlin is very profitable as an underdog, and the team catching points usually covers in his matchups against John Harbaugh's Ravens. I'll take 7 points with the Steelers to bounce back from a loss last week with a stronger showing.
Over/Under
Speaking of Tomlin being profitable as an underdog, Steelers unders usually cash on the road. The trends on that get stronger later in the season, so we'll play the under here.
My Picks: Steelers +7 & Under 44.5
Player Prop
By Matt Trebby
Chris Raybon has Austin projected for 35.8 receiving yards, while Sean Koerner has him pegged for 29.4. Austin had five receptions for 65 yards last week, but our experts aren’t high on the receiver’s potential output on Sunday. I'd recommend Calvin Austin under 38.5 receiving yards.
Steelers vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -305 |
- Steelers vs. Ravens spread: Ravens -7
- Steelers vs. Ravens over/under: 44.5 points scored
- Steelers vs. Ravens moneyline: Ravens -305, Steelers +245
- Steelers vs. Ravens best bet: Steelers +7 & Under 44.5
MySteelers vs. Ravens best bet is on Pittsburgh and the under. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs. Ravens Same Game Parlay
Interested in parlaying these picks? They gets you to +475 at bet365.
Steelers vs. Ravens Parlay: Steelers +6.5, Under 45.5, Calvin Austin Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (+475)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens NFL Saturday Preview
If you've been following along at Action Network in recent years, you surely know the direction we're going on this rivalry: Take the under and back the underdog.
First, the matchup analysis.
Mike Tomlin's defense continues to have answers for this Ravens attack. Just check out the last eight Baltimore totals against Pittsburgh: 16, 10, 10, 13, 16, 13, 19, and 14. Not a single game even hitting 20 points! The Steel Curtain has had answers for Lamar Jackson as much as any team in the league, and the elite pass rush has caused problems and kept this offense in check.
Baltimore's defense is improving too, now top 10 against the pass over the past six weeks. Pittsburgh will hope to get George Pickens back in this one and badly needs him as the team is short on weapons. The Ravens remain bottom 10 against deep balls by DVOA, so Russell Wilson may be able to get a couple moon balls down field, but Pittsburgh isn't exactly scoring against Baltimore either. The Steelers' total the last eight matchups: 18, 17, 17, 16, 14, 16, 20, and 19.
That's six straight meetings at 34 points combined or below, and eight straight games without either team even topping 20 points.
Pittsburgh has won eight of the last nine games in this rivalry, and all nine of those games finished within one score.
When Pittsburgh plays Baltimore, we know what to expect from perhaps the NFL's best rivalry: a close, low-scoring, smash-mouth game of football. That's why we want the under and the underdog.
Let's start with the case for the under.
Baltimore has been an over team this season at 11-3 to the over, best in the NFL. Ravens games are averaging over 55 PPG on the season when not playing Pittsburgh, but saw only 34 the one Steelers game, Baltimore's lowest of the season by nine points.
In Week 14 or later, games between division opponents tend to go under with a home favorite under seven (58% to the under), with a total of 40 to 47 (56%), and in outdoor conditions (62%). This one looks windy with a chance of rain, and windy games have gone under 61% of the time since 2021.
Mike Tomlin road unders are 83-61-1 (58%), the most profitable coach in Bet Labs.
I played the under 46.5 on the Hot Read and the total has been bet down but is still playable at 45.5 since that has yet to reach the key number zone from 40 to 44.
What about the case for Steelers +6?
You already know this is a Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot. From Week 5 forward, Tomlin is an awesome 50-21-1 ATS (70%) as an underdog in his career. That includes 10-1 ATS (91%) after a loss by at least a touchdown, covering by double digits on average, so this is a great spot after the big Eagles loss.
It also includes 24-5-1 ATS (83%) in division games like this. Underdogs in AFC North division matchups from Week 14 forward are 44-27-1 ATS (62%) over the past two decades — many of them in this rivalry.
When Tomlin and John Harbaugh face off, you always want the underdog. The 'dog is 24-6-3 ATS (80%) when those two play a game, including a nearly unbeatable 13-1 ATS for underdogs over a field goal.
Underdogs of over a field goal are now 19-2 ATS in this division rivalry since 2005.
The Ravens are at home, they're the better team, and they should take care of business — and maybe they'll finally buck history and get a big, comfortable win.
In this rivalry, you always bet on history. That means betting the under and taking the points with the underdog: under 45.5 and Steelers +6.5. You can play them together at +250 as a parlay if you like.
My Pick: Steelers +7 & Under 44.5
