The Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2) and Cleveland Browns (2-8) will face off on NFL Week 12. Kickoff is set for in 8:15 p.m. EST from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Steelers are favored by 3.5 points over the Browns with the game total set at 37 points. The Steelers are -200 favorites to win outright, while the Browns are +165 to pull off the upset.
The Steelers are rolling, having won 5 straight after last week's 18-16 win over the Ravens. In Russell Wilson's 4 starts, Pittsburgh is scoring 27.3 points per game. After winning Jameis Winston's first start, the Browns have dropped two straight, averaging 12 points per game in losses to the Chargers and Saints. Winston has 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on the season.
Let's get into my Steelers vs. Browns predictions and NFL picks.
Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Pick, Prediction
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- Steelers vs. Browns spread: Steelers -3.5
- Steelers vs. Browns over/under: 37 points scored
- Steelers vs. Browns moneyline: Steelers -200, Browns +165
- Steelers vs. Browns best bet: Lean Browns +3.5
MySteelers vs. Browns pick leans toward Cleveland against the spread. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
This could shape up to be a lower-scoring game, especially with the total dropping to 36.5 at some books on Wednesday due potentially ugly weather conditions. Both teams are likely to lean even more heavily on their run games and adopt fairly conservative game plans. In a game where points could be at a premium, getting 3.5 points with the Browns could hold extra value.
That said, if this game comes down to kickers, the Steelers hold a clear edge. Chris Boswell has been nearly automatic this season, going 29-of-30 overall and 9-of-10 from 50 or more yards. In contrast, Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins missed both field goal attempts last week, including a 27-yard chip shot indoors.
Last week’s loss on the Browns was frustrating, as they struggled to find answers for Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Taysom Hill. It’s also worth noting that this isn’t a spot where Mike Tomlin has historically excelled, just 17-28 against the spread as a road favorite when on a winning streak. Coming off a huge win over the Ravens, the Steelers could be in for a letdown spot here.
As of now, the lean is Browns +3.5, but I’m waiting for a clearer picture on the weather and injury report before locking anything in. Be sure to follow me in the Action App, which will be the first place you'll be able to see if I bet a side or total. I’ll definitely have a player prop lined up for this matchup on Thursday afternoon.
Moneyline
If I bet on the Browns, I'd take the points since we're getting more than the key number of three.
Over/Under
I have no pick on the total, which I project right at 37.
My Pick: Lean Browns +3.5
Steelers vs. Browns NFL Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Steelers Have the Ball
We could be in for some freezing weather with a potential mix of rain and snow for tonight’s game. While it’s still unclear how significant the weather will be — it is the weather, after all — this adds an unpredictable wrinkle to our handicapping.
In situations like this, I typically avoid locking in any bets too early since we need a clearer idea of how conditions might impact the game. That said, I’ll break down the matchup to establish a foundation for what each team’s plan will likely be, with the understanding that adjustments may be necessary as the weather picture becomes clearer.
If the weather does become a factor, expect Najee Harris to see a heavy workload. After last year’s Week 18 win over the Ravens in bad weather, Tomlin explicitly mentioned that he likes to lean on Harris in these conditions. That game saw him carry the ball 26 times for 112 yards and a touchdown, so don’t be surprised if we see a similar approach here.
Russell Wilson’s passing style could be less than ideal in a rain/snow mix. According to NextGenStats, Wilson has thrown the most passes that stay in the air for 2.5+ seconds since 2016, but that style is riskier in adverse weather. While he has experience playing in wet conditions from his time in Seattle, his deep-ball reliance may lead the Steelers to adopt a more conservative game plan.
This game also features some key matchups that could influence how both teams approach the passing game. Browns CB Denzel Ward has been lights out this season, leading the league in ball hawk rate and allowing the second-lowest completion rate (44%) among 117 qualified CBs. He’s fully capable of slowing down the red-hot George Pickens, and this is an environment that may be tougher to get Mike Williams, another downfield threat, many targets.
Given these factors, the Steelers may look to tap into Justin Fields’ rushing ability to provide an added dimension to their offense. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has hinted at getting him more plays after he chipped in two rushes for 17 yards last week. This is a spot where I can see Fields getting more snaps if both teams adopt a more run-heavy, conservative game plan, especially if the weather is a real factor.
When the Browns Have the Ball
Since Jameis Winston took over as quarterback for the injured Deshaun Watson, the Browns' offense has shown notable improvement. Winston ranks 16th in EPA per dropback this season, a significant upgrade from Watson's 35th-place ranking among 36 quarterbacks.
The Browns have allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate since Winston became the starter, a huge improvement from the fifth-highest rate earlier in the season. The drop in pressure rate coincides with the return of key offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller a few weeks ago, which has given the offensive line a boost with it being closer to full health.
This week, the offensive line has a tough challenge against T.J. Watt. However, edge rusher Alex Highsmith has already been ruled out due to his ankle sprain, which should make it easier for the Browns to potentially double team Watt.
If weather conditions end up being an issue, expect the Browns to rely heavily on backfield duo Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford. We may also see the Browns tap into backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson in a similar way to the Steelers use of Justin Fields as Thompson-Robinson has a ton of rushing upside. Both teams have options in the event the weather becomes a serious issue.
My Pick: Lean Browns +3.5
Browns vs Steelers Betting Trends
NFL Weather
