When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our own Director of Predictive Analytics Sean Koerner.
Using his projections in our Player Props Tool on Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll. Each week, I'll identify which Monday Night Football props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean's projections.
Let's take a closer look at tonight's matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for MNF
Latavius Murray Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
Murray has taken over the highly-desired lead running back spot for Baltimore. Last week at Denver, he garnered a 62.9% snap share and led the Ravens with 18 of their 23 running back carries. Murray totaled 59 yards, on the road, against a Denver defense that currently ranks seventh in run defense efficiency per Football Outsiders.
Now, Murray faces a middling Indianapolis run defense that entered Week 4 allowing the 15th-most rushing yards. As seven-point favorites, I expect the Ravens to enjoy a positive game script at home on Monday Night Football.
In our Action Labs Player Prop tool, Murray is projected for 55 yards, which is 6.5 yards above this total. There are also two extra yards of value as most other sportsbooks have this number at 50.5.
We are backing Baltimore's new leading rusher to break that 50-yard plateau for the second consecutive game.
Mo Alie-Cox Over 1.5 Receptions
I'm riding the momentum here with Indy's big tight end, Mo Alie-Cox.
The 28-year-old, 6-foot-4 tight end has become one of the top playmakers on a Colts team desperate for offensive options. Cox used to be only an option when veteran teammate Jack Doyle failed to see the field. However in Week 4, Cox earned five targets and caught two touchdown despite Doyle also being active. He faces a Ravens team that has allowed 30 receptions to opposing tight ends, including three receiving touchdowns.
Cox ranks eighth in yards per reception (12.3), and has the 11th-most slot snaps of any tight end. In a game the Colts are a touchdown underdog, I think Cox finds a way to catch two passes to beat this prop.
Jonathan Taylor Over 12.5 Receiving Yards
Baltimore's rush defense is strong, which means head coach Frank Reich will need to use Taylor in the passing game. There have been six games in Taylor's career in which the Colts were underdogs. In those games, Taylor is averaging 18.8 receiving yards, more than six yards over this total.
This prop is 0.7 yards below most other sportsbooks, giving us extra value. Taylor has seen 14 targets over the first four weeks, including seven in Week 1 when the Colts were trailing the majority of the game.
I'm backing the dynamic Colts running back to hit this prop regardless of game script.
