Another Sunday Night Football game and another PointsBet free $20 bet awaits.
Last week, we pivoted our view in honor of Tom Brady’s return to New England and came within a defensive pass interference call and a drop by Antonio Brown away from hitting all three props.
This week we return to utilizing our free bet to its maximum potential and take advantage of PointsBet’s same-game parlay.
Our goal here will be to write a script for how we expect the game to turn out. Then, use that script to stack props and create a parlay that optimizes our expected return.
Bills vs. Chiefs Breakdown
We saw this matchup twice last year and got very different games somehow with the same result. In the first clash, Buffalo dared the Chiefs to beat them via the run and in the second it was the battle of passing offenses.
For this matchup, I expect a showdown more similar to the second than the first.
Last season, the Chiefs defense played at a respectable level, ranking 10th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed. This year, they are down to 31st in both points and yards allowed.
The Bills have had the complete opposite year-to-year transition, going from middle of the pack to the No. 1 team in points and yards allowed.
They have even paired their every-down success with a league-leading 11 turnovers. We should however note that their defensive success has come against several lackluster offenses: Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington and Houston.
The discrepancy in defensive performance will be enough for Sean McDermott to have faith in his team that he did not have last year.
The added confidence in his defense is why I don’t foresee the Bills once again use the gimmicky defense and forcing the Chiefs to run as much as they did last year.
This means two of the best offenses in the NFL will be going toe-to-toe to see who can stop who.
Disclaimer: While I said I expect this game to be two great offenses going toe-to-toe, we do not want to be overly aggressive with our bets.
It is important to make sure that we are making bets that we deem connected to our game script. This will help us get better odds while losing less in our perceived cover likelihood.
Otherwise, you may as well bet Josh Gordon to score the first TD (+2200) and cross your fingers.
Tease the parlay:
- Over 51.5 (-180) – Betting the Total
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer Travis Kelce (-125)
- Highest Scoring Half Second Half (+100)
- Buffalo Bills Total First Half Over 13.5 (-131)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Bills vs. Chiefs
Prop 1: Over 51.5 (-180)
We did say that we expect both teams to throw the ball and score, but we can’t ignore the fact that both teams have run the ball well recently.
Covering this could break down as seven touchdowns and a field goal (a score of 28-24) to cover, for example.
This would be covered in each of the Chiefs' four games this year and Buffalo is better than any offense that they've played.
With their depth, weapons and talented quarterback, Buffalo should have no problem finding success against the Chiefs' struggling defense.
As for Kansas City’s offense against the Bills defense, the Chiefs will either need to score to keep up or fall behind quickly with the Bills being able to put up points.
If the Bills keep up we are looking good and if they fall behind, they will be forced to take risks and their offense excels at that very thing.
Prop 2: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Travis Kelce (-125)
This one is a little bit more specific than I would like but it was hard to pass up. In the two matchups last year, Kelce combined for four touchdowns.
Kelce is currently in the middle of a touchdown drought by his standards, not scoring a touchdown in the past two games. He has not gone three straight games without scoring a touchdown since 2019, so I expect him to end his drought against the Bills.
Prop 3: Highest Scoring Half Second Half (+100)
A common theme that we have seen from teams this year is playing extra aggressively against the Chiefs.
The Chargers game summed this up perfectly as they went for a fourth-and-nine against Kansas City late in regulation.
The Bills have been staying aggressive through the third quarter of games this year, even with comfortable leads. If Kansas City leads they will continue being aggressive because they know their defense is struggling.
If Buffalo leads they will keep the foot on the gas to keep the Chiefs out of the picture.
I also expect both teams to run the ball more to start the game.
Both teams have been successful on the ground recently and will likely see if that continues. However, once one team scores, I think the other will be too scared that getting stopped could immediately lead to a two-score deficit.
Prop 4: Buffalo Bills Total First Half Over 13.5 (-131)
This is the prop that takes our small bet to something worthwhile.
Our odds from the first three are +351 — with this included we get up +918.
The only thing that stopped the Bills from starting hot in each game was two overthrows by Josh Allen in Week 1. He has looked much better since that game though.
Other than the one stumble, Buffalo has scored at least 14 points in every game. As mentioned above, teams have been extra aggressive against the Chiefs so I expect Buffalo to not settle for field goals.
I wanted to take the Bills' first half moneyline, but this play actually provided more value to our parlay.
That puts our total parlay at odds of +918 for something that fits my expectations for the game. If you disagree and are building your own parlay (which is completely understandable) please heed my warning about keeping with props connected to our expected game script.
You might have a bet that you want to add but that gives less improvement to your odds than you hoped. Find a bet that you feel has a similar implication and swap it in and see what happens!
