We were so close to cashing last week's Sunday Night Football same-game parlay. We hit three of our four picks, but the Chiefs' offense halted in the second half, and thus so did the scoring. But it is important to remember that hitting once every few weeks is still beating the frequency implied by the odds we play.
Sticking with our process, we will once again create a script for that game. Then, follow that script to build a parlay that optimizes our expected return. This will allow us to make the most of PointsBets’ $20 free bet for SNF in the most efficient manner.
Now, the single-game parlay options are a little more limited this week. For example, you can only take rushing yard props on Najee Harris and receiving yard props on DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. However, I still have a set of four props in mind that produce a respectable return.
Seahawks vs. Steelers Odds
The absence of Russell Wilson puts a damper on the excitement around this game. In his place, Geno Smith will take over and do his best to lead this passing attack. Last week, as Smith filled in for Wilson he instilled hope with his first few throws, marching the offense right down the field and connecting with DK Metcalf for a touchdown. However, after that, he would look much more as expected and ended with a quarterback rating of 78.3.
With its backup quarterback taking snaps, Seattle will likely look to the run game to make Smith’s job easy. Unfortunately, the Seahawks also have a backup starting in that position too. In his first crack at starting, Collins ran 15 times but was only able to muster 47 yards.
Seattle has two bad options on offense coming into this game because of the injury situation. Finding something that works will likely be difficult early. Pittsburgh grades third against the run and fourth at creating pressure per PFF. Those numbers even include down games when T.J Watt missed. This will likely force Seattle into short possessions early as it finds its rhythm.
Short possessions for Seattle mean Pittsburgh will have several opportunities against the Seahawks' struggling defense. Seattle currently ranks 21st in points allowed and is down at last in yards allowed.
Last week we saw life from the Steelers passing attack — namely Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson who each had a 50+ yard reception and a touchdown. The past four weeks we have seen at least one receiver erupt for over 100 yards receiving against Seattle, and I expect the same this week.
This game script is setting up clearly in favor of the Steelers. When Pittsburgh has had a lead, it has shown a lot of faith in running back Najee Harris to bring the game home. When leading, the Steelers have run the ball 55%, much more than the 37% they do when tied. While Pittsburgh looks to grind the clock out quickly, Seattle will be forced to throw to try to get back in the game. This may not mean touchdowns thanks to Pittsburgh’s tough defense, but it should mean garbage-time yardage.
With our script set, let’s look through props I have picked for our parlay. Keep in mind our total odds of +812 are lower than I typically would like. This is likely due to Chase Claypool yardage plays not being available. However, I guess it just means we settle for the second-largest steak to celebrate winning!
The Parlay:
- Race to 10 points – Pittsburgh Steelers (-200)
- Race to 30 points – Neither (-270)
- Alternate totals – Over 39.5 (-180)
- Geno Smith Over 224.5 passing yards (-115)
PointsBet Same-Game Parlay: Seahawks vs. Steelers
Prop 1: Race to 10 points – Pittsburgh Steelers (-200)
This was one of my favorite picks to build a parlay around. As mentioned above, Seattle is using a backup quarterback and running back against potentially the league’s best defensive front. Any hesitation early by Geno Smith could end in him taking a big hit. The other option is Seattle tries to run, and we saw the struggles there last week.
Add in that Pittsburgh’s offense has two excellent outside deep threats against a weak secondary, and its offense should be able to hit this mark early.
Prop 2: Race to 30 points – Neither (-270)
Only once between these two teams has either scored 30 points. With Russell Wilson absent, Seattle’s chances of hitting this number greatly decrease. As for the Steelers, they have not shown an interest or aptitude to run up any scores. They do have their weapons outside to help get them a lead, but they will look to run the ball after getting the lead.
Prop 3: Alternate totals – Over 39.5 (-180)
Between this prop and the prior one, we are stuck hoping for a total between 40 and 58 (29-29). Having a limited score range like this hurts but it is what sends our odds to a worthwhile value. Per the Action Network’s parlay odds calculator, these three bets should have odds of +220. However, PointsBet gives odds of +440 for a parlay of this and the two bets above. It fits our game script that Pittsburgh will score, then slow down and that Seattle will struggle to get points. Playing the range may make you sweat at the end of the game, but I think it will pay off!
Prop 4: Geno Smith Over 224.5 passing yards (-115)
Four of the five quarterbacks Pittsburgh has played have hit this mark. The only one not to was Joe Burrow and that was because the Bengals had a comfortable lead and were not forced to throw. As our script states, that will not be the case here. I expect Smith to look much more comfortable in the second half of this game and move the ball when the Steelers sit back and focus on stopping the deep passes. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are talented enough to create space against a poor Pittsburgh secondary. However, our view on limited scoring is also supported, as I expect Smith to struggle more when he gets closer to the end zone.
Well, there you have it a four-leg parlay with a sizable payout. Let’s keep our fingers crossed that this one can just be slightly better than the prior and hit all four legs instead of three of four.
