One of the best ways to enjoy a standalone Thursday Night Football is with props.
When it comes to NFL player prop projections, there is simply no one better than our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner. Using his projections in our Player Props Tool at Action Labs, we can easily identify the biggest advantages to help build our bankroll.
Each Thursday, I’ll identify which TNF props on PrizePicks have the most value when compared with Sean’s projections. Let’s take a closer look at the Week 5 matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
NFL Prop Picks for TNF
Freddie Swain Over 22.5 Receiving Yards
This is a play based on injury and opportunity. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both battling through injuries, which should keep Swaim more involved than usual.
In Week 4, Swaim ran 12 routes, saw four targets, and caught his second touchdown of the season. The third receiver in Seattle often gets overlooked, and players such as David Moore have found success in these exact situations. Swaim already has a 95-yard receiving performance on his resume from Week 2 at home against Tennessee.
Swaim brings 4.46 speed against a Rams secondary that will deploy All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey on a combination of Metcalf and Lockett. We project Swaim for 27.4 receiving yards, almost five more than this total.
This is an 8/10 rated prop in Koerner's Player Props tool.
Matthew Stafford Under 26 Pass Completions
Despite playing at an MVP level this season, we are backing the under on this Matthew Stafford completion prop. In the four games this season, Stafford has only crested this total once, and that was by one in the Rams 34-24 home win over Tampa Bay.
As a reference, Jared Goff faced Seattle four times as the Rams starting quarterback. In those games, he averaged 24.7 completions. In the two games at Seattle? He averaged just 20.6 completions.
The Rams will likely skew run-heavy to attack a Seattle defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Seahawks have allowed a league-leading 514 rushing yards to opposing backs as well.
In a run-heavy game script and a close AFC West battle, I'm backing Stafford to stay under this completion total. We project Stafford at 25.5 pass completions, but that will be dictated by the success of the Los Angeles rushing attack.
Tyler Higbee Over 3.5 Receptions
Despite inconsistent production over the first four weeks, Tyler Higbee has earned one of the highest snap shares of any NFL tight end. He ranks second at the position in that category, along with 11 targets and nine receptions over the past two weeks.
Higbee is an explosive pass-catcher for Los Angeles, ranking fifth in yards after catch. He is also used in the red zone, and has the fourth-best positional catch rate per PlayerProfiler.
I expect Stafford to lean on Higbee early, with the Seattle defense focusing on wide receiver Cooper Kupp and teammate Robert Woods struggling to produce early in the season.
We project Higbee for 3.8 receptions, which is 8.6% more than this projection.
