Hyped-up rookies are nothing new.
Caleb Williams, though, has so far been in a class all his own.
The betting public can’t get enough of this year’s number-one overall pick and is backing the Bears and their new quarterback in a major way.
Williams is the most popular quarterback to go over his total passing yards with 83% of the public backing it according to BetMGM. The line’s set at 3,475.5, which is hardly a difficult number to surpass considering 16 quarterbacks eclipsed that mark last season.
Williams is also heavily favored to win Rookie of the Year at +130. That’s not all, though. His 40-1 odds to win MVP entering the season is better than any other rookie over the past 15 years. Saquon Barkley 66-1 in 2018 previously had the lowest odds.
Add it all up and both the public and oddsmakers are bullish on Chicago’s chances this year. The Bears finished last in the NFC North at 7-10 a year ago but have a 10.5 win total heading into the season. It’s a drastic difference from the past few years when the total was 7.5 in 2023, 5.5 in 2022 and 7.5 in 2021.
Chicago’s also -110 to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020. They enter the season +3500 to win the Super Bowl, which is better than their +4000 opening odds. The Bears are +325 to win the NFC North behind the Lions (+130) and Packers (+210) and +1500 to win the NFC, which ranks eighth in the conference.
All that said, history suggests backing Williams in his debut might not be the smartest play. According to Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams, 27 quarterbacks have been selected first-overall since the 1970 merger, but they’re only 4-22-1 SU and 7-20 ATS. It’s also been over 22 years since the last rookie quarterback won straight up when David Carr led the Houston Texans to a 19-10 win over the Dallas Cowboys.
