Fade the public.
Those in the sports betting community have heard that mantra for years. This year, it's coming to fruition in the NFL as the public is off to a rough start.
Through three weeks, public sides are a putrid 17-30-1 ATS, according to Evan Abrams, Action Network's director of research. That is a 36% hit rate on the side of the spread that has received more bets.
A $100 bettor would be down $1,453 if they bet on every single public side in the NFL. That is the second-worst start to an NFL season in the past 20 years.
The public sides have been consistently bad week-to-week in the NFL. There hasn't been one week that was particularly worse than the other. Public sides went 6-10 ATS in Week 1, 5-10-1 in Week 2 and 6-10 in Week 3.
"These are the kind of weekends that keep the lights on during the summer," SuperBook risk supervisor Chase Michaelson told Vegas Insider's Patrick Everson after Week 3.
Every week, so far, has been good for the sportsbooks. It is getting to the point where the public is due for a turnaround.
