Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua is just 29 yards away from setting the rookie, single-season receiving yard record, and yet, he's still +450 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
That's on account of Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, who had been as long as -10000 to win this award in December. Stroud now sits at -850 to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel. That Nacua is within striking range is a testament to how he's played down the stretch.
The rookie receiving yard record was set in 1960 by Bill Groman, who did so in 13 games. That Nacua will take 17 games to beat the record is perhaps a knock to voters.
As is the fact that Stroud would have walked away with this award if not for a concussion that forced him to sit out two crucial December games.
Still, besting a 63-year-old record is no joke. But it might be a futile journey should Stroud beat the Colts on Saturday night and secure a playoff spot for the Texans, a team that finished 3-13-1 in 2022.
A loss and Houston is out of the playoffs.
Even then, there are clear case studies that indicate the race is Stroud's to lose.
Two rookie receivers recently came close to beating Groman's record from 63 years ago: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson in 2020 and Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase in 2021.
In 2020, Jefferson put up 1,400 yards, coming 73 yards short of the record. Even still, he lost the award 41 votes to 9 to Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, despite a losing record and a below average expected points added + completion percentage above expected (EPA/play + CPOE) among all QBs that season.
Herbert ranked just No. 17 in EPA/play + CPOE, but his counting stats were enough to entice journalists who proritize those things over advanced metrics. The Chargers QB put up 4,336 passing yards with 31 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions.
In 2021, meanwhile, Chase had been a +350 underdog entering Week 17 before putting up a Bengals franchise record for receiving yards with 266 alongside three touchdowns. The performance vaulted Chase above Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, who led his team to the playoffs and finished with far better underlying metrics than Herbert did the year before. Jones that season ranked No. 11 among all quarterbacks at EPA/play + CPOE.
Chase closed as a slight -275 favorite and won the award with 42 votes to Jones' five. The Bengals WR finished just 19 yards away from setting the rookie, single-season record.
So, this is all to say that if Nacua puts up another 150 yard outburst and Stroud puts up a stinker? Nacua could very well close the season as the favorite to win the OROY.
As far as the rest of the market goes, no player has less than +10000 odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, which implies a probability of 0.99%. Lions tight end Sam LaPorta sports +10000 odds, but by all accounts, it's a two horse race as we enter the last week of the season.
Stroud wins and the Texans make the playoffs on Saturday night? His odds will plummet to below -1500. Even if Stroud plays well and the Texans lose, he'll likely lock up this award by virtue of playing the sport's most important position.
But if Nacua torches a 49ers defense that'll likely be playing its backups? All bets are off.
