There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Oakland Raiders-San Francisco 49ers matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on NFL Network and Fox.
The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props, along with the player props tool at FantasyLabs.
According to our props tool, here are the two player props bettors should target on Thursday night.
All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Raiders WR Seth Roberts
The pick: Under 3.0 receptions (+105 at Bovada)
Derek Carr’s 6.3 yards per pass attempt distance (Player Profiler) is 26th in the NFL, so the matchup set up well for him last week against a Colts defense that ranks in the bottom third in the NFL at defending passes of 15 or fewer yards.
However, this week is a different story as the way to beat the 49ers secondary is deep (28th, Football Outsiders).
Roberts owns an average target distance of only 7.4 yards (98th) this season. If Carr adjusts to what the 49ers are giving him, it makes sense to go short with wide receiver volume in the short-to-intermediate area of the field.
49ers WR Marquise Goodwin
The pick: Over 50.5 receiving yards (-105 at Bovada)
Going long on a likely Nick Mullens-led 49ers offense is pretty terrifying, but speaking of getting beat deep, Oakland is even worse. It currently ranks 30th in defense against passes of 16 or more yards through the air.
Goodwin has just seven receptions over the past three weeks, but he is the most likely option to beat this Raiders defense with speed and a 42% target market share of air yards since Week 5.
