Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Raiders +2.5 |
| Buy Raiders +3.5 |
| Raiders Live Bet +4 |
| Chiefs -2.5 |
| Byron Pringle Over 15.5 Receiving Yards |
Raiders +2.5
Brandon Anderson: I'm out on the Chiefs. I'm just out. I don't believe anymore. It's time to stop pretending this is the same team that shredded league defenses the last few years. This is a different team right now. And they're not good.
Patrick Mahomes is not himself. He ranks just 19th in EPA on third and fourth downs for the season. He's 22nd of 26 qualified quarterbacks in overall EPA over the last four weeks, ahead of only Trevor Lawrence, Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold. The Chiefs rank 28th in EPA per pass play over that stretch. And while it feels like their defense has been better over the past month, the three decent games came against Taylor Heinicke, Daniel Jones and Jordan Love, so what did that really prove?
I just think the Raiders are better.
They beat the Chiefs last season, even when K.C. was playing well, and the Raiders are playing great football over the past month. They rank second in EPA per rushing play over that stretch, and Derek Carr has been playing far better than Mahomes. The Raiders also have a far better defense, with a dominant pass rush that should have a big impact on Sunday night.
The Raiders lost to the Giants last week, but I'm undaunted. The Raiders went 1-for-6 in the red zone and had three turnovers and still had a chance to tie in the final minute. Honestly, they played better than the Chiefs last week, who had to hold on for a win against Love in the final minutes.
The Raiders are the best and most complete team in the division right now and his game feels badly mispriced — I would make them favorites. And while I would call this our Week 10 Upset Special, it's not an upset at this point.
Buy Raiders +3.5
Michael Arinze: If you solely looked at the stats of both teams and not their names, you'd likely conclude that the wrong team is favored on Sunday night. Six key statistics serve as a foundation for my models: points per play, points per play margin, yards per play, opponent points per play, opponent yards per game, and opponent yards per play. Interestingly, the Chiefs trail the Raiders in each of these statistical categories, yet they're the team that's a 2.5- to three-point road favorite.
The public tax on Kansas City is still in play, and yet the Chiefs have done nothing to reward their backers of late.
Kansas City's currently on a 4-16 ATS run in its last 20 games for a loss of 12.3 units. You might as well light your money on fire instead of backing this team right now. This team looks broken at the moment, and as a result, I want no part of them, especially if bookmakers continue to treat them with the same reverence as the squad that won Super Bowl LIV.
As of writing on Sunday afternoon, FanDuel has the best price available with the Raiders at +3 (-115), which means grabbing the hook of +3.5 — which would mean a cover rather than a push if this is a field-goal game — will cost only 15 more cents at -130. That's a price I can live with, so you can bet I'll be adding the Raiders to my Sunday card.
Raiders Live Bet +4
Stuckey: Until I see something change with this Chiefs offense (and a sustained improvement on defense), I refuse to bet them as a favorite. There’s a reason they are 2-7 ATS this season with the league’s worst cover margin and are just 4-16 ATS in their past 20 games. It’s hard to get what we’ve seen from the Chiefs in the past out of our heads, but we are into mid-November. This is a new Chiefs team until further notice.
That said, I don’t see a ton of value in the Raiders below a field goal. The Raiders were seven-point underdogs at home last year in this matchup and projected as seven-point underdogs in the lookahead market in the preseason for this game.
Have the Chiefs really dropped that much from preseason expectations? I don’t think that’s unrealistic. You also have to consider the improvements on Las Vegas’ defensive side of the ball, which I don’t think the market anticipated.
I just don’t see any pregame value from a side or total perspective. I don’t mind the Raiders as a teaser piece since you can get them from under a field goal to over a touchdown. Despite the high total, that looks like a rock-solid play here if you can open a teaser for a future week.
I’m personally waiting and betting the Raiders live. The Chiefs live with a deficit is usually always a target of mine, but I just need to see this offense adjust before I trust them. If I can grab Vegas at +4 or better live early on, I’m in. A deficit of say 10-0 early in the game would be ideal.
I’m not a regular-season props player, but I may dabble on some Darren Waller over catches/yards here. In five career games against the Chiefs, he has 28 catches on 33 targets for 322 yards and two touchdowns. And we know Daniel Sorensen will at least give up one touchdown this game. It could very well come against Waller.
Stay tuned in the Action App for any live plays or Waller props I play. You can read my full betting preview of this game — and this pick — in my SNF game guide here.
Chiefs -2.5
Raheem Palmer: From a numbers perspective, this line is short, and I think we're finally getting some value on the Chiefs who are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games, with their two covers this season coming against the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Football Team. This is a market and at some point you have to expect the Chiefs to begin covering spreads, and this feels like the ideal spot to back them as they were laying 7.5 on the preseason lookahead line.
While the Chiefs offense has been struggling, this is still a unit with Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce that should be able to put up points in this spot. The Raiders have been dealing with a ton of turmoil after losing head coach Jon Gruden and their dynamic wide receiver Henry Ruggs III. I'll take the Chiefs at less than a field goal in this spot.
Byron Pringle Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Randle: Despite a consolidated target share focused on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, Byron Pringle has grinded his way to above a 40% snap share the past four weeks. He saw consecutive games of 55 and 73 receiving yards in Weeks 6 and 7, and should find success tonight in a game with a 52.5-point total.
Pringle beat this prop in both games against Las Vegas last season, and the Raiders rank just middle of the pack in DVOA against No. 2 and No. 3 wide receivers. Pringle struggled last week against Green Bay, failing to record a target or reception. That helps to provide more value for a wideout with 4.46 speed.
I grabbed this line at 15.5 on PointsBet, but I would take it up to 16.5, which is where it resides with most books.
