Raiders at Broncos Betting Odds
- Odds: Broncos -3
- Total: 43
- Time: 10:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
It's been a wild couple of months for the silver and black (knock on wood if you agree), but the Antonio Brown saga is finally over. That said, this matchup feels a bit different than it would have had Brown actually played a game for the Raiders.
The Broncos moved from -1 earlier this week to -2.5. Is there any hope for the Raiders at home?
Our experts compare their projections to the odds and reveal their favorite picks in this comprehensive betting guide.
All odds above as of Monday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Monday Night Football Injury Report
Both teams are mostly healthy for this game. Linebacker Todd Davis is unlikely to suit up for the Broncos, which is a slight ding to their front seven.
And on the Raiders' side, J.J. Nelson (ankle) is listed as questionable. If Nelson is healthy enough to suit up, the Raiders will likely roll out Tyrell Williams, Nelson and Hunter Renfrow in 3-WR sets. — Justin Bailey
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Raiders -0.5
- Projected Total: 43.5
I had considered coming in on the Raiders if the line moved to +2.5, but that was before all the Antonio Brown drama.
With the circus around Oakland, I'm staying away from this spread. — Sean Koerner
Biggest Mismatch
Raiders' WRs vs. Broncos' Pass Defense
Well, that escalated quickly.
Brown’s tenure with the Raiders has officially ended as he signed with the Patriots. But what he left in his wake is a receiving corps that has a lot more questions than answers. On Monday Night Football, Oakland will host a Broncos team now led by defensive scheme wizard, Vic Fangio.
Heading into a game against the "No Fly Zone," the Raiders find themselves severely shorthanded at wide receiver. Free-agent acquisition Williams now ascends to the WR1 role, but fails to inspire confidence with only 155 receptions over four NFL seasons.
Renfrow will receive slot targets, but at 184 pounds and 4.59 40-yard dash speed, the rookie's impact could be minimal. Diminutive deep threat J.J. Nelson (5-foot-10, 161 pounds) has 4.28 speed but is a massive talent drop-off from Brown.
Denver features a secondary that ranked fourth-best in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA last season despite facing a difficult schedule. Defensive backs Chris Harris and Kareem Jackson will provide a huge talent disparity against the Raiders depleted receiving core.
Add in "see it before I throw it" quarterback Derek Carr, and the Raiders will clearly need to rely on their running game to move the ball against the Broncos defense. — Mike Randle
PRO System Match
Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive. It's been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.
Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 107-112-2, we're still able to turn a profit because we are making plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,172 following this strategy since 2003.
The Raiders are a match for this Pro System as 2.5-point underdogs at home to the Broncos. — John Ewing
Expert Picks
Matt LaMarca: Broncos WR DaeSean Hamilton Under 3.5 Receptions (-115)
Hamilton was thrust into a big role for the Broncos at the end of last season, earning an average of 9.5 targets per game over the past four weeks. That said, he was pretty nonexistent until the injury to Emmanuel Sanders. Hamilton saw just seven total targets through his first 10 games.
He figures to be a larger factor in the offense this season, but he still looks like the third receiver option at best for Flacco. Hamilton saw just two targets on Flacco’s 16 attempts during the preseason, ranking behind Sanders, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant.
Even if Hamilton does see more targets than expected, there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to take advantage of them. Flacco graded out as the No. 22 QB according to Pro Football Focus last season.
I committed to team #BetTheUnder this season, and this looks like a good one. I’d be willing to play it up to -130.
Scott T. Miller: Emmanuel Sanders Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
When I reached out to our projections guru Koerner about this prop, he said the number was so bad "it's almost like it was a typo."
Koerner has Sanders projected for 30 fewer yards, giving it a 10-out-of-10 Bet Quality in our FantasyLabs props tool. (Last season, receiving yardage unders that fit this profile hit at a 78.4% rate — 58-16 overall.)
Sanders is coming off a torn Achilles in December, and even with surgical advancements, this injury has effectively ended the career of many aging stars. So it's hard to imagine the 32-year-old WR immediately going back to his old explosive self just 10 month after suffering the tear.
This is worth a bet all the way down to an over/under of 60.
Monday 10:30 a.m. ET update: This prop was up at DraftKings and SugarHouse for the majority of the weekend before coming off the board after this article published. DraftKings re-posted the odds at 41.5. At that number, it's either a stay-away or an Over bet. (I'll personally be middling Over 41.5 with Under 75.5 and would recommend that for anyone who grabbed Under 75.5 before it got taken OTB.) Koerner's projected yardage for Sanders is 50.4 as of Monday morning.
