A matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns was postponed from Saturday due to a coronavirus outbreak in the Browns' camp.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield and backup Case Keenum will not play after failing to pass the league's coronavirus health protocols on Monday.
That means the starter will be Nick Mullens, who is 5-11 over his career and has a roughly equal touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's not a good quarterback.
The Browns will also be without running back Kareem Hunt, starting wide receiver Jarvis Landry, starting tight end Austin Hooper, their starting left tackle, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and several other players.
All of this opens the door for more opportunities out of starting running back Nick Chubb. Prop bettors are banking on him having a big night.
Raiders vs. Browns Most Popular NFL Player Props
- Nick Chubb to score the first touchdown of the game (+400)
- Nick Chubb to score and Browns to win (+135)
The Browns moved from 3-point favorites to 2.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks when Mayfield and Keenum were officially ruled out.
Their moneyline has gone from -150 to +115, which renders the second-most popular player prop pick completely useless. That parlay implies that the value on Chubb to score a touchdown is around -1000, which is completely untrue.
Chubb's touchdown prop should be around -150, at worst. That means the parlay value on the second-most popular prop of the night should be around +260. Please, please don't bet on Chubb to score and the Browns to win.
As far as Chubb's most popular player prop goes, "first touchdown" props seldom have good value. They're too variable for like 85 different reasons. Pass on that one, too.
A good prop option for this game might be on Derek Carr to throw for more than 241.5 yards (-115). He's done so in 10 of his 13 games this season and the Browns' defense is depleted. For reference, his historical precedent implies that those odds should be somewhere closer to -325.
