Raiders vs. Chargers Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Raiders +3.5 |
| Under 51.5 |
Raiders +3.5
Michael Arinze: Week 4 in the NFL wraps up in the beautiful SoFi Stadium with the Chargers hosting the Raiders. Thanks to their talented second-year quarterback Justin Herbert, the Chargers are a very trendy team in the league. However, if there's one team that seems to be flying under the radar despite their undefeated mark, it's the Raiders.
Las Vegas has had no problem matriculating the ball down the field. It's ranked eighth in yards per play (6.3) and ninth in opponent's yards per play (5.3). So essentially, the Raiders have been a full yard per play better than their opponents every time they snap the football. In comparison, the Chargers are 13th in yards per play (5.9) and 24th in opponent's yards per play (6.0). The Raiders defense has also been better than expected. Football Outsiders has them at 11th in their Total DVOA defensive rankings, whereas the Chargers are ranked 22nd.
When it comes to putting points on the scoreboard, the Raiders are ranked sixth with 30 points per game, whereas the Chargers are 20th with 22.3 per game. Furthermore, Los Angeles is below 50% in red-zone touchdown conversion.
I see the current line as a bit inflated for a divisional game where the Chargers are unlikely to have home-field advantage in their building. We saw droves of Cowboys fans engulf SoFi Stadium in Week 2, and I bet we'll see a similar situation with plenty of Raiders support still in the Los Angeles area.
Historically, road underdogs in an AFC West divisional game are 80-53-7 against the spread for +23.45 units.
This is one of my favorite angles, but I'd try to grab the +3.5 with the Raiders at PlaySugarHouse because many sportsbooks are already adjusting their number to +3. At that price, you might want to consider buying a half-point with the hook.
Under 51.5
Chris Raybon: These teams have made strides from last season in terms of their defensive scheme. Both defenses will sit back in coverage, forcing the offenses to sustain long drives in order to score. There are also question marks about each team’s run game and ability to overcome pressure on the quarterback.
You can read more about how these teams match-up in my full preview here, but I would bet this under down to 51.
