After hitting my Tre Tucker receptions ladder all the way up to +1000 for 6+ receptions, I'm going right back to the Tre Tucker well for a Black Friday game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders.
Here's how I'm betting on the Raiders wide receiver on Friday afternoon.
Tre Tucker Player Props: Raiders vs. Chiefs
- Anytime TD +500
- First TD +3100
- 2+ TDs +7000
- First TD/2+ TD SGP +24152
Gardner Minshew left the Raiders' Week 12 game against Denver with a season-ending collarbone injury. That means the Raiders will have to turn to a different QB against Kansas City. Fortunately for Tucker, it seems either replacement QB option is likely to help him.
Desmond Ridder came in and replaced Minshew and went to work targeting Tre Tucker four times on 10 pass attempts. That's a theme for Ridder, who targeted Tucker four other times in his 16 pass attempts in mop-up duty Week 9 against Cincinnati. Tucker was also targeted one more time by Ridder on a deep ball that doesn't show up on the stat line, thanks to a pass interference penalty. That means a third of all Ridder's pass attempts have gone to Tucker.
However, the more likely QB option is Aidan O'Connell, who was named the Raiders starter for the rest of the season before breaking his thumb. O'Connell practiced on Monday, which is a good sign for his likely return, and really boosts Tucker's upside.
O'Connell and Tucker have linked up 39 times, with an adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) of 7.1, nearly two full yards better than when Minshew targets Tucker. O'Connell loves throwing the deep ball to Tucker, with the wideout catching two deep TD passes from the gunslinger against man coverage in a Week 14 game against the Los Angeles Chargers last year.
Fortunately for Tucker, Kansas City this year also plays a high rate of man coverage, ranking fifth overall and fourth since Week 6.
And just like last year, Tucker has been targeted more against man coverage (17% of routes) than zone (11% of routes).
I love Tucker's TD upside here, so I'll take his anytime TD at +500. I also like taking him for First Touchdown at +3100, which is a bit puzzling considering his Last Touchdown odds are +1600. There absolutely should be longer odds for a first TD, but the discrepancy shouldn't be that wide.
And in true ladder form, I'll take a shot at 2-plus TDs at +7000. Hey, he's already done that once in his career against man-heavy coverage with O'Connell under center. I'll even parlay the First TD with multiple TDs as a Parlay Express long shot.
