My strategy for Monday Night Football between the Raiders and Chiefs is to create a correlated single game parlay that pinpoints the way I see the game playing out.
There are five legs in total and I break down each one below. Same game parlays don't present the best value in betting, so check out our other coverage of tonight's game here.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
25+ Receiving Yards
It’s MVS’ birthday, so of course he’s part of this parlay. But really, he’s averaging 42 yards per game and he’s gone over 25 yards in 3-of-4 games. He has a healthy snap percentage of 75% and has seen at least four targets in each game this season.
Still a relatively new addition to Kansas City’s offense, it’s another opportunity for MVS and Patrick Mahomes to build chemistry. The matchup is optimal for that, as the Raiders are 25th in DVOA against deep passes.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is expected to play, but he won’t be at 100% as he deals with quad and hamstring injuries.
Travis Kelce
50+ Receiving Yards
Kelce is averaging 80.5 receiving yards this season and he’s hit at least 50 in each contest. Against the Raiders – specifically, the last even meetings – his average receiving yards are even more robust at 91.4.
Travis Kelce
Anytime Touchdown
Sticking with Kelce … this time we need him to score, which he does quite often.
He has at least one touchdown in six of his last seven games. The one miss was against the Chargers, when Derwin James infamously stopped him at the one-yard line. Kelce also leads the Chiefs with nine red zone targets.
Sportsbooks expect scoring aplenty in this game, with Patrick Mahomes’ passing touchdowns prop set at 2.5.
Davante Adams
40+ Receiving Yards
The spread of this game (7.5) indicates Derek Carr is going to need to throw a lot, and who better to look to than Adams? The new Raider has a 32.4% target percentage entering Monday Night Football.
Adams is averaging 72.5 receiving yards per game this season, with an inconsistent (but promising) air yards percentage of 40.75.
Moving the ball via the pass is the way to go against the Chiefs, as they are 20th overall in defensive pass DVOA. They’ve been stouter against the ground game with the third-best DVOA against the run. Kansas City also allows the most completions per game at 30.8.
Darren Waller
25+ Receiving Yards
Waller averages 57.7 receiving yards in six career games against the Chiefs — he's hit at least 25 yards four times. He’s also achieved 50-plus yards in four straight Monday Night Football games.
Kansas City allows 8.75 targets (third most) to tight ends this season and it is seventh in pass rush win rate at 48%, which should lead to some quick throws that go Waller’s way.
The Parlay (+290, FanDuel)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling 25+ Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce 50+ Receiving Yards
- Travis Kelce Anytime TD
- Davante Adams 40+ Receiving Yards
- Darren Waller 25+ Recieving Yards
