Raiders at Packers Odds & Picks
- Odds: Packers -5
- Over/Under: 47
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Packers have only lost one game this season while the Raiders are above .500 coming off back-to-back wins after a tumultuous training camp. Bettors are rolling with the Raiders right now, with nearly 60% of bets on them to cover the spread after a bye week.
Should you follow the public?
Our analysts break down every angle of this matchup, complete with Sean Koerner's projected odds as well as trends and a pick.
Raiders-Packers Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Raiders
Tyrell Williams (foot) still isn't practicing, which isn’t a good sign for his status. It sounds like he won't suit up as he continues to deal with plantar fasciitis.
The Packers could be in a heap of trouble, too, with three of their starting receivers banged up. Davante Adams (toe), Geronimo Allison (concussion) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle/knee) were all absent from practice on Wednesday and Thursday. If all three are ruled out, Green Bay would be missing 73% of its Air Yards and 54% of its target share. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Josh Jacobs vs. Packers Run Defense
The Raiders rookie has been a strong lead rusher, ranking eighth in rushing yards despite coming off a bye. His 4.9 yards per carry ranks is tied for fourth among running backs with at least 100 carries, and is the same as Christian McCaffrey.
The Raiders rank third in Football Outsiders' run offense DVOA while the Packers sit 26th in run defense DVOA. They were gashed at home by the Eagles in Week 4, with Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard combining for 159 rushing yards on 26 attempts (6.2 yards per carry).
Jon Gruden knows his team is limited on offense and will center most of their plays through Jacobs, who also has eight targets over his past three games.
This Oakland offensive line has performed at an elite level, ranking third with 5.01 adjusted line yards and has allowed only six sacks this season. Green Bay has an elite pass-defense but will need to commit to stopping Jacobs.
If Williams, the Raiders' top wide receiver, misses this game, a run-heavy game script would be even more prevalent.
The Packers should stack the line and tempt the conservative Derek Carr to make plays through the air. If Jacobs has a strong game, the Raiders' sixth-best run defense will put even more pressure on an already-compromised Packers' passing attack. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Packers -8
- Projected Total: 47
Everything sets up for the Packers at -5 here.
My Pass/Run Funnel Model gives the Packers a 0.70 rating, which has an in-sample predictive value of 62.5%. The market seems to be leaning toward the Raiders here with 55% of the action coming their way as of writing (see live public betting data here), hence the line drifting down from 7.
One thing I’ll want to monitor before pulling the trigger on the Packers is the health/availability of Adams and Allison. Aaron Rodgers needs both to be active for me to feel more confident in backing them.
They brought in former Packers back Ryan Grant, which could be a sign they expect one or both wide receivers to miss. Either way, it’s a cluster injury worth waiting to get clarity on before betting on the favorite.— Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Matthew Freedman: Packers -5
Rodgers has notable home/away splits against the spread.
- Home: 50-28-3 | 24.7% ROI
- Away: 42-39-1 | 1.9% ROI
In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers are the only team in the league that ranks top-five in home/away scoring differential for both offense and defense, as they have averaged 3.7 more points per game at home than on the road and held opponents to a league-best 4.9 fewer points in Green Bay.
As a result, they have an NFL-high 8.5-point overall home/away scoring differential. At Lambeau Field, they truly have a home-field advantage.
I bet this at -6.5 earlier in the week.
