I have zero interest in picking a side for this week’s Thursday Night Football game. However, I do have two player props I project value on.
My favorite way to pick NFL player props is using PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different props and wager real money on them in 30 states, including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
That said, here’s my PrizePicks card for Thursday Night Football this week.
Tyler Higbee
Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
Tyler Higbee hasn’t been part of the Rams' offense recently. He had a knee injury that kept him in and out, and he missed a few games.
However, Higbee is still second on the team in targets and receptions this season. He started the season by cruising past 3.5 receptions in five straight games and recently picked up 12 in a two-game span.
Higbee ramped up his snap count last week, picking up five targets from the backup quarterbacks. Unfortunately, he only converted two targets into receptions, but I believe Higbee’s usage will increase this week for two reasons.
First, John Wolford seems to like Higbee. Things didn’t go to plan last week, but Higbee posted eight receptions for 73 yards in Wolford’s only other start this season. A lower-experienced quarterback likely wants to lean more on his tight-end safety blanket.
Second, the Raiders can’t defend anybody through the air. Las Vegas allows the second-most passing yards per game (258.1) and the highest completion percentage (70.3%).
Against tight ends, Las Vegas ranks 25th in Pass Defense DVOA, allowing over seven pass attempts per game to the position. Higbee is going to get every one of those targets.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Higbee for 3.8 receptions today. That gives us enough value to take a shot with Higbee on this PrizePicks line.
Pick: Over 3.5 Receptions
Josh Jacobs
Over/Under 87.5 Rushing Yards
It’s scary to fade Josh Jacobs. He’s one of the league’s best running backs, leading the NFL in rushing yards (1303) following a ridiculous three-game stretch.
Jacobs has cashed over 87.5 rush yards in three straight games, tallying 109 against Denver, 229 against Seattle and 144 against Los Angeles (AFC).
The common theme between the three teams? All three rank in 17th or worse in Rush Defense DVOA (Denver 17th, Seattle 24th, Los Angeles 27th).
This test will be different for Jacobs against the Rams’ front seven.
The only good unit on this Rams team is the rush defense. Los Angeles is fifth in Rush Defense DVOA, fourth in rush yards per game allowed (96.7) and fourth in YPA allowed (3.9).
This Rams defense hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. It only allowed one guy to crack 90 yards, Christian McCaffrey and the Niners.
Before this recent three-game stretch, Jacobs only cracked 85 rushing yards in three of his first nine games. He’s consistent with some monster performances this season, but cracking 90 rushing yards in a game is tough.
In the end, Jacobs is slightly overvalued after this monster three-game stretch, and is facing a massive step up in talent. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see coach Josh McDaniels go with a pass-heavy approach, given you can beat the Rams' secondary (17th in Pass Defense DVOA).
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Jacobs for only 85 rush yards on Thursday Night Football, giving us a solid edge over this PrizePicks number.
Pick: Under 87.5 Rush Yards
