In an ugly Thursday night bout, the Las Vegas Raiders head to Los Angeles to take on the lowly Rams.
The Raiders enter on a three-game winning streak and have found themselves slowly re-entering the playoff picture as seven-point favorites tonight. The Rams, meanwhile, have lost six straight and eight of their last nine.
John Wolford carries a questionable tag tonight at quarterback, which could lead to a Baker Mayfield start for Sean McVay’s crew.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football:
Alt Under 45.5 (-158)
I’m going to join my colleague Sean Koerner on the under in Thursday night’s game. The Raiders are favored by nearly a touchdown, and in an expected positive game script, Josh McDaniels can do what he loves most: feed Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs has rushed 20+ times each of the last four weeks, including a 33-carry game against Seattle in Week 12. He has been playing through injury — albeit, to the tune of 373 yards in the last two weeks — but could be slowed down against a Rams defense that ranks fifth in Rush DVOA.
Aaron Donald will miss his second straight game, but the Rams front seven should hold its own. They were picked apart by Geno Smith in the passing game (367 yards) in a 27-23 loss last week, but as Sean points out, six different players generated two or more pressures against a very good Seahawks offensive line.
Wolford remains under center for the Rams, and he was anything but solid last week. He finished 14-of-26 for 178 yards and two interceptions. Los Angeles remains without top receivers Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson, too.
This sets up as a low-scoring, slower-paced game. The Raiders should establish an early lead and live in the trenches behind Jacobs. The clock will keep running, and I find it difficult to believe LA will find a groove behind Wolford or on the ground through Cam Akers.
Wolford is also questionable for tonight’s game. If he’s not good to go, that means Baker Mayfield is in line to start. That wouldn’t change my stance on the total. In fact, it may even help given how little time Mayfield has had to learn the playbook.
Back the under in this ugly Thursday night matchup.
Van Jefferson
Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The weakest part of the Raiders defense is the passing game, where they rank 31st in DVOA.
While Kupp and Robinson remain sidelined, there’s a huge target share left unclaimed. Enter Van Jefferson, who has slowly worked himself back from injury at the beginning of the year.
In his lone game as the de facto No. 1 receiver alongside Wolford, Jefferson finished with two receptions for 39 yards. He has become heavily involved in the passing game and plays nearly every offensive snap.
Over the last three weeks, Jefferson has averaged five targets per game. He’s finished over this number in two of those three games, with his lone under coming with Bryce Perkins under center.
Our Action Labs projections have Jefferson at 3.4 receptions. His 15.9 aDOT plays favorably in this matchup against a porous Raiders pass defense, too.
In an expected negative game script, the Rams will be forced to pass a lot more. While they’ll deploy a variety of different looks and packages to get the likes of Brandon Powell and Tutu Atwell involved, expect the consistent Jefferson to hit the 40-yard mark by night’s end.
Foster Moreau
Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Following the game script of the Raiders coasting to an easy win, I’m fading Foster Moreau, who has been a bit lucky over the last few weeks.
In four Raiders wins with Moreau, he has gone under this number three of four times. Over the last three weeks, Moreau has finished with 32 or 33 yards each game. Twice he hauled in just one reception.
Moreau’s aDOT is 8.6 despite his 12.6 yards per reception. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen his average jump all the way up to 19.6.
The Raiders’ recent success and turnaround has come in correlation with an uptick in usage to both Jacobs and Davante Adams. Mack Hollins has slowly grown into his own as the No. 2 receiver, too, leaving fewer targets to be had for the surrounding cast.
Moreau now has his toughest test since Week 10. Despite their struggles in the passing game, the Rams are about league average against tight ends.
Over the last three weeks, Moreau has faced two of the four worst defenses against TEs. Moreau didn’t finish over this mark once in that span, even with seven targets against Seattle in a game where Vegas scored 40 points.
In an expected under game where the Raiders rely on their stars, Moreau should be a non-factor. Our projections are closer to 28.7 yards for Moreau, putting some value on his under tonight.
The Parlay (+468)
- Alt Under 45.5 (-158)
- Van Jefferson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Foster Moreau Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Pick: Raiders-Rams SGP |
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