The Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers square off in the penultimate game of Christmas Eve.
The Steelers enter as winners of three of their last four while the Raiders took down the Patriots in one of the wildest endings in NFL history. Las Vegas’ defense returned a broken lateral play — with the game tied and no time left — into the end zone for the win.
With both teams clinging to a near-impossible dream of the playoffs, here’s a same-game parlay for Saturday Night Football:
Davante Adams
Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
It’s Davante Adams’ birthday, so we’ll start out with the obvious.
Last week, Adams was held in check against the Patriots. He totaled just 24 yards on four receptions — nine targets — in the eventual win.
But when you look at how Adams has done after being held under 50 receiving yards the week prior, it's a positive for this prop:
Once he finished with 36 yards. The other two games? He bounced back with 101 and 146 yards.
This number is too low for me, regardless of the implications. Adams has soared over this number in six of his last seven games and 10 of 14 overall. He’s never been targeted less than five times in a game and is the workhorse receiver of this offense.
This is going to be a cold weather game where the temperature will feel negative and wind could reach double digits. But that isn’t foreign to Adams, who played the first eight years in the NFL in Green Bay.
Last week’s matchup against New England was a tough matchup, but now Adams draws a Steelers team that ranks 21st in pass coverage, per PFF. Even with the added options of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, Adams’ production shouldn’t waver.
He’s the No. 1 receiver in Las Vegas and has consistently broken 70 receiving yards week in and week out.
Jaylen Warren
Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Early in the season there was a chance that Jaylen Warren would take over Najee Harris’ role as the lead back — or at least split duties — in Pittsburgh.
That theory is no longer relevant with Harris’ strong last few weeks, but Warren has carved out a role as the third-down back in this offense.
Over the last two weeks, Warren’s snap count sits around the 40-46% range. He’s broken double-digit receiving yards in both of those games and in six of his last seven. The one time he didn’t, he finished with nine receiving yards.
Warren is good for at least one checkdown per game, but has seen multiple targets in five of his last seven. That’s come despite shaky snap counts — he’s in a more reliable role — and this matchup is perfect for the rookie running back.
The Raiders are dead last in pass DVOA against running backs and with double-digit winds, shorter passes, screens and checkdowns may work into the repertoire a lot more than normal.
That benefits Warren, who has high upside and explosiveness in the passing game. It’s also a coin-flip matchup, and if the Steelers trail late, we could see a bit more of Warren filtering in.
This is Warren’s best matchup of the year, and he’s already consistently hitting double-digit receiving yards each week. I love this play.
Najee Harris
Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
I know I just finished writing about Warren’s upside in the passing game. Well, Harris is going to be the workhorse on the ground.
The second-year back has rushed for 15+ carries in four of his last five games — the game vs. Indianapolis is removed because he left due to injury — and has broken 80 yards in all but one. Early on his issue was efficiency on the ground, but that’s not an issue anymore.
Harris now draws a Raiders defense that is 22nd in rush DVOA in a game where it’s going to be freezing with double-digit winds. We’ve already seen Mike Tomlin rely on the run game week in and week out, and it’s often come with success with Harris’ newfound efficiency.
Our Action Labs projections have this number at 65, so there’s slight value to the over here. If the Steelers win, we’ll see an extra few carries, too. But regardless of the outcome, especially in an expectedly close game, I love the upside of Harris against a bad rush defense tonight.
The Raiders give up an average of 4.3 yards per carry and have held opponents under 60 rushing yards just twice the entire season. Warren should see a few reps, but it’ll be Harris getting the bulk of the early-down work and carries.
The Parlay (+582)
- Davante Adams Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Jaylen Warren Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
- Najee Harris Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Pick: Raiders-Steelers SGP |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
