Rams vs. Bills Odds
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In one of only two battles between 2-0 teams this week, the Rams make a return trip out east to face the Bills. Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay is 5-0 against the spread in 1 p.m. games on the East Coast, but will two consecutive cross-country trips end that undefeated streak?
I think so. Let's take a closer look at the matchup.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are off to a surprising 2-0 start after entering the season with a projected 8.5 season win total. They had an impressive win at home against the Cowboys in Week 1, followed by a 37-19 blowout on the road against the Eagles.
Now the Rams must again travel back to the East Coast to face an undefeated Bills team.
One of the biggest surprises has been the Rams' defense, which is led by first-year defensive coordinator Brandon Staley. Their pass defense is stout with All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, but they've experienced a drop-off in run defense efficiency — the Rams rank just 27th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA through two weeks.
Ramsey will face his toughest test of the season in new Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The former Minnesota wideout leads the NFL in receiving yards (239) and completed air yards (195).
The Rams' pass rush has been masked against teams with injury-riddled offensive lines. The Bills' offensive line is fully healthy and will provide the most difficult test for a Rams pass rush that ranks in the bottom-three in the NFL.
On offense, McVay has used well-designed short passes to mask a poor Los Angeles offensive line. The Bills have the highest pass-rush win rate (per ESPN) at 66%, which is even better than Pittsburgh.
As far as significant injuries, rookie running back Cam Akers (ribs) is out.
Buffalo Bills
For Buffalo, quarterback Josh Allen has gotten off to an MVP-level start. He leads all quarterbacks in passing yards (729) and ranks second in fantasy points per game (31.3). Allen provides a difficult matchup for any defense, averaging 37.5 rushing yards per game as well.
The Bills have always had a strong defense under head coach Sean McDermott, but their offense has taken a big step forward in 2020. While the Rams enter this game fifth in the league with a 435.5 yards per game average, Buffalo actually ranks third with 464 yards per game.
On defense, the Bills will welcome the return of linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano, both of whom were injured in a Week 1 win over the Jets. Their absences played a critical role in the offensive explosion of Miami tight end Mike Gesicki, who hauled in eight passes for 130 yards, and a touchdown.
Now the Bills will focus on limiting Rams tight end Tyler Higbee, who caught three touchdown passes in Week 2. Buffalo also features a fantastic cornerback in Tre’Davious White, who ranks 12th in Pro Football Focus' coverage ratings.
Diggs is playing at a career-elite level, and McDermott deploys the wide receiver throughout the field, which should complicate Ramsey's coverage. This should also open up targets for both Cole Beasley and John Brown. Beasley has an 82.8% slot rate (seventh among all wideouts) and should find similar opportunities that Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb did against the Rams in Week 1 (six targets, five receptions, 39 receiving yards).
Rams-Bills Pick
The Rams offense has yet to be tested this season. They've faced Dallas and Philadelphia, both of whom rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in pass defense. This has allowed Jared Goff and the passing attack to roll early, which is unlikely to happen against Buffalo's top-10 pass defense.
The weather will also play a role on Sunday, as there are expected to be 15 mph winds in Buffalo at kickoff. Per Bet Labs, the under is 55% when the wind is 10 mph or higher. As my colleague Chris Raybon mentioned on the Week 3 NFL Betting Preview episode of our podcast, the under is 19-10 (66%) all-time with Allen as Buffalo's starting quarterback.
I project this as a low-scoring game with Buffalo's defense disrupting the timing of McVay's offense. The excessive travel for the Rams, combined with windy conditions, leads me to project the Bills winning a low-scoring game.
I'm backing the Bills -2 and would take it up to -2.5. I'm also taking the under at 47 and would do so down to 46.5.
PICKS: Bills -2; Under 47
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