Two of the NFC’s best from last season have struggled to find their footing in 2022. The defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams head to Tampa to face the spiraling Buccaneers.
The Rams have lost three of their last four and enter off a loss to the 49ers, while the Bucs blew their lead on Thursday Night Football to the Ravens and dropped their third straight game.
The Buccaneers enter as three-point favorites in a rematch of last season’s NFC Divisional Round matchup. Cooper Kupp hauled in back-to-back receptions of 20 and 44 yards in the final 40 seconds of the game to lift the Rams over the Bucs.
Here’s a same game parlay for Sunday’s bout:
Buccaneers ML (-154)
The stock couldn’t be any lower for Tom Brady and the Bucs, losers in five of their last six, which is why I love this spot.
Tampa Bay has generated 57 percent of the bets and 90 percent of the money as the line has slowly pushed from a (-1.5) soft open all the way up to a field goal. The Bucs enter off extended rest after Thursday Night Football, where Brady is 72-19 SU in his career and an even better 28-2 after 10+ days of rest at home.
The matchup is also great for the Tampa defense. Matthew Stafford doesn’t have much left in the tank. He’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has a career-low aDOT. If it weren’t for Cooper Kupp, this offense would barely put up points.
Sean McVay has struggled to find an answer at running back. Cam Akers returns after being away from the team and was not traded at the deadline. Darrell Henderson Jr. was seemingly benched, and Ronnie Rivers (eight rushes, 21 yards in Week 8), isn’t very good. LA ranks second-to-last in rushing yards per game.
The uncertainty and instability in the backfield is good news for a Tampa defense whose Achilles heel is the rush defense. The Bucs allow the sixth-fewest points per game in the NFL and rank fourth in Coverage Grade, per PFF.
While the Bucs offense has struggled, I’m less worried about their long-term success than the Rams’. Chris Godwin is back at full health, and Mike Evans remains consistent. Leonard Fournette has lagged behind, but Rachaad White is arguably better than the 27-year-old back.
The Rams’ weakness is through the air — 19th in Coverage Grade, per PFF — and that’s where I expect Brady to thrive on Sunday. This may be an ugly win, but I expect Brady to finally right the ship and take home a win.
Chris Godwin
Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
It’s only a matter of time before Chris Godwin pops.
Godwin is Brady’s favorite receiver — 9.2 targets per game — but has battled injuries over the last couple of seasons, which has led to a slight decline in production. He is back at full health and should play around 90 percent of the snaps on Sunday.
This number is too low for Godwin as he has gone over 64.5 yards in two of the last three weeks. He’s averaged 12 targets per game in that span and often provides an outlet underneath in case Brady is in trouble.
The sheer volume alone makes Godwin a great candidate for an over here. He has generated a 22 percent target share since his return from injury and draws a favorable matchup against a Rams defense that thrives in the trenches but does have its issues defending the pass.
Per our Action Network contributor PropBetGuy, the Rams are one of the more zone-heavy teams in football. Godwin has a 28 percent target share against zone since Week 4 and should avoid Jalen Ramsey — who’ll be on Evans and Julio Jones — because of his normal position in the slot.
Last season Godwin finished with six receptions and 74 yards against the Rams. I expect another strong output from Godwin, who should have another busy day and see 12+ targets once again.
Allen Robinson
Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This is the perfect time to fade Allen Robinson.
Robinson has caught 10 of his 13 targets over the last two weeks and has gone over this number both times. But before that, he did it just once in five games. This season, Robinson averages just 32 receiving yards per game.
Van Jefferson will also factor into the offense after returning from injury this week. He commanded a 14.7 percent target share last season and should eat into Robinson’s workload.
Robinson also benefited from Tyler Higbee battling injuries over the last two games. While he did return, Higbee was clearly inefficient and banged up. He should be at full health this week.
Per our own Chris Raybon, Robinson also will draw a lot of coverage from right cornerback Jamal Dean, who is allowing just 2.7 yards per throw and 5.6 yards per reception. I mentioned how Tampa Bay’s pass defense is its strong suit, and their zone defense should give Robinson fits, too.
Robinson averages just 0.78 yards per route run against zone, a number that nearly doubles against man.
This number is on the move down – and for good reason. There are too many mouths to feed in this offense for a struggling quarterback who, whenever he’s in trouble, targets Kupp.
While it looks like Robinson was finally turning a corner, I expect a letdown performance from the 29-year-old in a tough matchup.
The Parlay (+509)
- Buccaneers Moneyline (-154)
- Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Allen Robinson Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
