The Buccaneers enter this game with injuries all over the place offensively. Tampa Bay is missing Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown on the outside, the backfield is down Ronald Jones, and the line isn’t missing players, but Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs are not 100%. (Editor's Note:ESPN's Adam Schefter reported early Sunday afternoon that Wirfs will be out against the Rams.)
Yet, they still are favorites because Tom Brady is the greatest playoff performer ever. Let’s see if we can build a parlay around the Bucs winning a hard-fought game against the Rams, thanks to Brady.
A full breakdown of this game can be found here.
Should you bet same-game parlays? We outline all the factors you should consider when betting on same-game parlays here.
Rams–Bucs Same-Game Parlay
Legs 1 & 2 : Rams Alt Spread +6.5 (-180) & Under 49.5 Total Points (-130)
If you followed my same-game parlays last week, you know this is a go-to move for me. Taking the game to be within one score and the under pair well together, as a low score means a dog is more likely to cover.
The Buccaneers' strength defensively is their coverage unit that ranked second on the year, per PFF. The problem has been their defensive line, which made a name for itself during last year's postseason, but it has not been as stout. That could be because Tampa was intentionally playing them less throughout the season to keep them healthy for now.
In the regular season, none of the Bucs starting linemen played more than 70% of their snaps. For comparison, the Rams played their starters on more than 80% of snaps throughout the year. Their starters should get more time now and wreak havoc for Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense.
As for the Bucs offense, well, it's facing Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey. Donald will likely spend some time against the injured Ryan Jensen, and Miller will be against the beat-up Tristan Wirfs.
On the outside, two obvious targets are remaining for Brady: Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski. The Rams will likely use Ramsey — PFF’s No. 1 graded corner — to take Evans out of the game. Then all the Rams have to do is focus on Gronk. Brady has made things work with less before, but it will likely take long methodical drives here.
This will be a hard-fought game for both teams defensively, and it should lean to the under. While I trust Brady to be the one who pulls it out in the end, it will be close, making it perfect for the under and touchdown spread combo.
Leg 3: Tom Brady Over 26.5 Pass Completions (-120)
It would not be a same-game parlay if our props did not connect. As mentioned above, I am trusting Brady to come out the other side in this one. However, he will have neither the time nor playmakers to gash the Rams for chunk plays. That will mean a lot of short-yardage completions that eat the clock. This will also keep the Rams' explosive offense on the sidelines. That is an added plus that we know Brady likes to take advantage of come playoff time.
Leg 4: Tyler Johnson Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-140)
The last piece to our long parlay is that someone has to catch Brady’s passes. We mentioned Ramsey taking out Evans and the Rams being able to focus on Gronk, so next in line is Tyler Johnson. I was hoping this last piece would be an over on reception total, unfortunately, that was not available.
Johnson will be the guy filling in the slot, and that is an area the Rams will struggle to match up with. Even when the Bucs had more weapons in Week 3, Johnson had three catches for 63 yards. We have seen Brady turn zeroes into heroes in the playoffs many times before. All the signs point to that player being Johnson this week.
