Rams at Cowboys Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Odds: Rams -1.5
- Over/Under: 49
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
After opening as 3-point underdogs, the Los Angeles Rams have been bet up to 1.5-point favorites against the Dallas Cowboys.
Is there any more value left on this spread?
Our experts preview Sunday's NFC showdown, featuring analysis of the biggest matchups and their picks.
Rams-Cowboys Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Rams
The only Rams player in jeopardy of missing this game is Gerald Everett (knee). Even if he's out, Tyler Higbee has filled in nicely, catching 14 of his 18 targets for 223 yards and one touchdown over their past two games.
Meanwhile, I'd expect Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch to remain out with his neck injury since he still hasn’t resumed practicing. Safety Jeff Heath could potentially make a return, though, after missing the past two games with his shoulder issue.
Cornerback Byron Jones (hip) will also be worth monitoring since he grades out as their best cornerback in coverage, allowing a completion rate of just 56% when targeted (per Pro Football Focus). — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Rams vs. Cowboys at … the Little Things
On our Week 14 NFL betting podcast I ranted about the Cowboys, who at the time sat at 6-6 despite leading the league in yards per play and ranking right near the top in net yards per play.
So, why can't Dallas figure it out, especially against winning teams? The little things.
Special teams (they're my worst rated unit), penalties (27th in penalty yards per game), turnovers (26th in takeaways per game), red-zone production (17th in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage), coaching strategy, play-calling, etc. It's all the little things that can determine a game but don't show up in a simple analysis of yards per play that are hurting the Cowboys.
The Rams haven't been elite in any of those categories, per se, but have been superior to the Cowboys in every single one. The Rams also bring in the much more competent staff. In a matchup of a very good offense (Cowboys) vs. a very good defense (Rams), and a vulnerable offense (Rams) vs. a vulnerable defense (Cowboys), these little things could make all of the difference. — Stuckey
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Cowboys -1.5
- Projected Total: 47.5
This market has been fascinating to follow.
The Cowboys opened at -3, but 90% of the action has poured in on the Rams to move it all the way to Rams -1.5 (see live public betting data here). That’s a massive line move that required both public and sharp money to move off a key number of 3 and even flip the favorite. It’s likely due to Dak Prescott spraining his left hand and injuring his right index finger. Any time a quarterback as valuable as Dak is likely to play at less than 100%, it’s hard to handicap this early in the week.
However, the market hasn’t been correlating the injury with the total.
The over/under opened at 48 and has been bet all the way up to 49. I highlighted this type of inconsistent market behavior when Ryan Finley was benched for Andy Dalton. That over/under ended up moving up about three points while the spread only improved by a half point — the two line moves didn’t line up and it offered a ton of value on the Bengals at +3 against the Jets. We’re seeing that a bit here.
Prescott and Jared Goff both struggle against pressure. The Rams rank second in generating pressure while the Cowboys rank 10th. I expect both teams to lean on the running game more, which will keep the clock running and prevent it from becoming a shootout.
It’s also worth pointing out that I do have this projected to be the fastest paced game of the week, but for the reasons above and the inflated number, I still like the under at 49. — Sean Koerner
Koerner is 147-104-2 (58.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Expert Pick
Stuckey: Cowboys +1.5
Now, having said all I did about the little things earlier, I have to play the Cowboys here.
First, I know that, in a way, this game (somehow) means nothing to the Cowboys — they can beat the Eagles then the Redskins over the next two weeks to win the division. But on the flip side, this game is almost essential to the playoff chances for the Rams, who are fighting for the last wild-card spot in the deep NFC.
But at the end of the day, I play numbers, not teams.
When this line opened around Cowboys -3, it looked reasonable to me since I have these teams rated very similarly. Even when it ticked down a bit, I had no interest in Dallas for fear of the reasons I outlined above. However, I cannot pass up +1.5, which is where this line currently sits after everyone and their brother, sister and cousin has decided to play the Rams — that’s just too much value on the home team (with extra prep following a Thursday game) in a fairly even matchup, per my numbers.
This game also fits one of my primary principles — buy low, sell high — when betting the NFL, which sees more overreactions on a week-to-week basis than any other sport.
Last week, everybody wanted to back the Cowboys on the road in Chicago and fade the Rams at home against Seattle. Well, after passing on Dallas last week and betting the Rams, the tides have shifted too much with this number.
I'll be out on an island by myself late Sunday afternoon with a Cowboys ticket, hoping Jason Garrett doesn't do something like punt on fourth-and-1 from the Rams' 30-yard line. And hey, at least Brett Maher is no longer kicking in Big D!
Stuckey is 308-241-7 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
