Rams at Falcons Betting Odds & Picks
- Odds: Rams -3
- Over/Under: 55
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
The Rams made a huge splash by landing cornerback Jalen Ramsey in a trade and they'll need him to be as good as the hype against a high-scoring Falcons offense.
This game has the highest total of the weekend and bettors are heavily backing the Rams and the over with more than 70% of tickets taking both. Should you follow the public's lead?
Our analysts break down the angles of this game, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds, a Pro System play, key matchups and an expert pick.
Rams-Falcons Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Falcons
The Falcons are in pretty good shape. Julio Jones (hip) remains limited, but there isn't anything to worry about there. They could be without CB Desmond Trufant (toe) for the second game in a row, however.
Sean McVay isn't sure whether Ramsey will play yet, but he said the goal is to have him play this week. Todd Gurley (quad) has been practicing in a limited fashion and McVay said he's "hopeful" Gurley can play.
The Rams are also dealing with an injury to Gurley's backup, Malcolm Brown (ankle), who hasn't practiced in consecutive days and McVay considers him questionable. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Rams Pass Offense vs. Falcons Pass Defense
Jared Goff is coming off a horrendous 78-yard performance, but he still has the league's best trio of wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. He also has an emerging tight end in Gerald Everett and a head coach who should be able to exploit a good matchup in McVay.
And this is undoubtedly a good matchup. The Falcons are No. 31 with a 39.7 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Over the past four weeks, the Falcons allowed 1,303 yards and 13 touchdowns passing to Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray. Clearly, Watson is a top quarterback and Murray has potential, but that's hardly a murderers' row of passing talent.
It's not just that the Falcons secondary is bad. They're also missing Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles), who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3.
In the slot, Kupp should dominate against cornerback Damontae Kazee, who has allowed an 80% catch rate this season. Split out to the right, Woods will face fill-in corner Kendall Sheffield, a fourth-round rookie with one NFL start and 71 coverage snaps to his name. And out wide on the left, Cooks will run routes at cornerback Isaiah Oliver, who has allowed a 75% catch rate this season.
In my Week 7 WR/CB matchups piece, I graded all three of these matchups heavily in favor of the receivers.
With such an edge in what's expected to be a high-scoring back-and-forth game, Goff could pass for 400 yards. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Rams -3
- Projected Total: 54
The Rams gave away two first- and one fourth-round pick to acquire Ramsey. It’s worth noting they traded away Marcus Peters and lost Aqib Talib to IR.
I’m treating them straight-up this week, assuming Ramsey is able to suit up, but their main issues still lie with their offensive line. It’s also becoming clear that the league has been able to figure out their offense, which means McVay is now the one who needs to adjust. We’ve seen that with them incorporating their tight ends more recently, and they should be able to exploit the Falcons’ lack of pass rush.
I expect Goff and the Rams to have a bounce back game, but the line(s) look about right, so this is a pass for me. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The Rams have been one of the most profitable teams to start the 2019 season, covering the spread in four of their six games. The same can’t be said for the Falcons, who are tied with the Ravens and Redskins for the worst record against the spread (1-5).
Nearly 70% of spread tickets are on the Rams to cover as road favorites as of writing (see live public betting data here), but bettors shouldn't expect each team to continue their ATS ways.
ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it's been profitable to bet teams with bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.
Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 165-103-9 (61.6%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,289 following this strategy. Bettors are counting the Falcons out against the Rams, but history suggests Atlanta can cover as a home underdog. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Falcons +3
The Rams have gambled with an inexperienced interior on the offensive line and its backfired significantly.
Out of 57 guards with at least 250 snaps, Joseph Noteboom and Austin Blythe don't rank in the top 50 in PFF's overall grade. With Noteboom now hurt, rookie fifth-round draft pick David Edwards will make his first career start on the road.
Center Brian Allen has been one of the worst in the NFL at his position. And on the outside, an aging Andrew Whitworth and a suddenly lost Rob Havenstein haven't helped matters.
Take a look at just how bad the line has performed:
- Offensive line ranks last in pass-blocking efficiency at 76.2 (the next worst is Miami at 80.0)
- They’ve allowed a league-high 91 QB Hurries (the next-highest is Green Bay at 60)
- They have given up a gaudy 115 QB Hurries (the next-highest is the Chargers at 115)
Per PFF, Goff has dropped back under pressure a league-high 114 times. That’s 43.3% of all drop backs — the second-highest frequency in the NFL, trailing only Daniel Jones in New York.
On those plays, he has an adjusted completion percentage of just 60.7 — 21st out of 21 quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 drop backs. In comparison, Matt Ryan, who also deals with a shaky offensive line, sits at 68.9% — seventh-best in the league.
The strength of Atlanta's defense is the interior of its defensive line. Expect the Falcons to blow up a number of plays, forcing Goff into some drive-killing inaccurate throws and/or turnovers.
The Rams acquired Ramsey to help to their struggling secondary, but if he can’t go, the two starting outside corners will be Troy Hill and Darious Williams (making his first career start). That’s not ideal against an explosive Falcons offense averaging 317.8 passing yards per game, trailing only the Chiefs.
The Falcons are also a mess along the offensive line, but that doesn’t disrupt the Falcons' offense as much. L.A. will certainly score points against a beat up and subpar Atlanta defensive backfield. But I'll gladly take the points at home in a game that I have as a coin flip.
