Rams vs. Lions Pick: NFL Wild Card Matchup Preview
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Rams Preview
Kyren Williams has been a beast this year and is arguably the top running back not named Christian McCaffrey. However, this might be his toughest test to date. The Lions finished the year first in defensive rush DVOA and allowed the second-fewest yards per game on the ground (88.8). One reason for that is teams must air it out to keep pace with the Lions' offense.
Fortunately for Los Angeles, its passing attack is well-suited to carve up Detroit’s secondary. Matthew Stafford finished the year as Pro Football Focus’ seventh-highest graded passer, and no matter how you slice it, Stafford and company should move the ball against a Lions defense that gave up the sixth-most passing yards per game (247.4).
Not only that, but Detroit had the fourth-worst expected points contributed by passing defense per game (-5.88). Meanwhile, Stafford averaged the 10th-best TD% on throws among quarterbacks playing at least 10 games (4.6%).
The Lions are also especially vulnerable to the deep ball, which is one of the Rams’ specialties. Detroit allowed far-and-away the most air yards in the league (2,482) and the third-highest average depth of target (9.2). At the same time, Stafford threw the fifth-highest yards before catch per reception (6.4). The Rams seem primed for some quick scoring drives in Detroit.
Lions Preview
One of Detroit’s biggest advantages is oddly enough a carbon copy of Los Angeles’, as Jared Goff has a tantalizing matchup against the Rams.
Goff grades out as PFF’s sixth-highest-graded passer and faces a middling Los Angeles pass defense. The Rams allow the second-highest average depth per target (9.3), which is marginally worse than Detroit’s, while Goff totaled the third-most completed air yards of any quarterback (2,430).
Look for the Lions to run a ton of play-action against the Rams with Goff leading the league in play-action attempts (138) and yards (1,203). Detroit's one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs powered the Lions to the fifth-most rushing yards per game (135.9), and they ranked fourth in DVOA.
Rams vs. Lions Pick
The NFL scriptwriters couldn’t have come up with a better story. Former No. 1 overall picks who were traded for one another face off against their former team in the playoffs. That’s really as good as it gets.
This game has the highest total of any on Super Wild Card Weekend (51.5). It's a tough threshold to surpass, but each team's advantage through the air should lead to a ton of points.
Both teams are already high-scoring units, with Detroit ranking third (27.1 points per game) and Los Angeles finishing seventh (23.8 points per game). The Rams have been particularly lethal of late, averaging 30.4 points per game in Stafford's last five starts heading into the playoffs. That includes dropping 31 on the Ravens' top-ranked scoring defense, nearly doubling its average points against (16.5).
The early sharp action and big money are on the under, while the public is hammering the over with 84% of the tickets. I'm aligned with the public on this one. The Rams routinely hit the over on the road, doing so in five of their last six games. At the same time, Detroit has gone over in four straight home games. In fact, the under hasn't hit at Ford Field since late October. As a result, while I've backed unders most of the year, I'm taking the over in what should be an entertaining wild-card showdown.
Pick: Over 51.5 |
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