It’s not a stretch to say that the game of the weekend comes on Sunday Night Football when the Los Angeles Rams head to Ford Field for a bout with the Detroit Lions.
It’s Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit with fans all around trying to ban the No. 9 jersey he once donned in blue and gray. Jared Goff, the misfit that was shipped out of Los Angeles so Sean McVay could lift the Lombardi, gets a chance to send his former team home.
With a total north of 50, we’re expecting a high-scoring game on Sunday. Here’s a same-game parlay for Rams vs. Lions.
Rams vs Lions Same Game Parlay (+623)
- Jameson Williams 40+ Receiving Yards (+116)
- Matt Stafford Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-130)
- Kyren Williams Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
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Jameson Williams 40+ Receiving Yards
Jameson Williams has slowly become a vital piece to Detroit’s passing attack, and with Kalif Raymond out and Sam LaPorta questionable, there are plenty of opportunities for Williams to soar over his prop.
In the back half of the season, Williams’ production has seen a steady increase. While he missed Week 18 with an ankle injury, he returned to practice in full this week and carries no injury designation. In the three weeks prior, Williams averaged more than five targets per game and went over this number each time.
It’s also a great matchup for him against a Rams defense that zones nearly 80% of the time. Without Raymond, Williams is now the second-best receiver from a yards per route run standpoint (1.62), and he commands a 64.3 target percentage on his designed routes, per Pro Football Focus.
Tack on the Rams’ league-average DVOA rating against the deep pass, which is where Williams is most utilized, and we could see this over in just one swing. In 10 games where Williams has caught a pass, he’s hauled in a 30+ yard reception four times.
I’m expecting the Rams to hone in on Amon-Ra St. Brown and force Jared Goff to beat them through other options. Given Williams’ recent success — he’s had 40+ receiving yards in five of his last seven — and his recent bump in usage, I love taking a swing at him in a game where the total is north of 50 points.
Matthew Stafford Over 275.5 Passing Yards
The Rams' offense is clicking on all cylinders at the right time, and now Matthew Stafford heads back to Detroit, a place he called home for 12 seasons, looking to ruin the Lions’ dreams.
In an expected high-scoring game between two dominant offenses, the Rams’ best avenue to success is through Stafford. The Lions are No. 1 in defensive DVOA against the run, but they have their issues stopping the pass.
In the last three games, Dak Prescott and Nick Mullens have thrown for 345 yards or more all three times. Mullens himself has thrown for 800 yards in a two-game span. The Lions are 16th in general against the pass and in a game where they’re favored, we could see LA adopt a pass-heavy script.
It’s near-impossible to guard the duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. With Demarcus Robinson on fire as well, this is the perfect game for Stafford to make a statement. He’s been over this number in four of his last five games and with a fully healthy Rams offense, should be able to dominate yet again.
A key toward this success has been the return and dominance of Kyren Williams. His play allows for the Rams to take deep shots and force opponents to respect the run. That is perfect for a seasoned vet like Stafford.
Kyren Williams Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Let’s go with a little correlation to round out the same game parlay. Kyren Williams has been a workhorse in the Rams' backfield, carrying the ball 20+ times in each of the last five games.
But this is a Lions defense that is No. 1 in defensive DVOA against the run. They also happen to be 23rd defending passes to the RB, allowing an average of 31 receiving yards per game.
One of the great things about Sean McVay, a disciple of the Kyle Shanahan system, is that he finds a way to put the ball in his playmakers’ hands. Mike McDaniel does the same. If Williams is struggling against this front seven, we could very well see 4-6 targets in the passing game to the budding back.
Williams averages four targets per game and has plenty of receiving upside. He’s going to command the lion’s share of snaps in a high-stakes game – one where the Rams enter as slight underdogs.
Back Stafford to use his safety valve against a Lions defense that could get constant pressure on the veteran.
