Rams at Seahawks Odds & Picks
- Spread: Seahawks -1.5
- Over/Under: 49.5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NFL Network
Odds as of Wednesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Rams are coming off a 55-40 loss to Tamp Bay, and now they're 1.5-point underdogs in this NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football.
Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick.
Thursday Night Football Injury Report
The Rams are healthy with no key injuries heading into this divisional matchup.
The Seahawks are in good shape, too, and everyone is trending toward playing except for LT Duane Brown (biceps), who hasn't practiced as of Tuesday. That said, Brown followed a similar schedule in Week 4, and he ended up suiting up, so it could just be the Seahawks limiting him with the shortened week. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Wednesday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch for Rams-Seahawks
Todd Gurley vs. Seahawks' Run Defense
While Gurley's usage has greatly decreased this season, he's historically dominated the Seahawks. Since his 2015 rookie season, Gurley has averaged more than 100 total yards and 1.3 total touchdowns against Seattle. And since Sean McVay's arrival in Los Angeles, Gurley's production has been even better, especially in Seattle.
In the Rams' blowout loss to Tampa Bay at home, Jared Goff turned the ball over four times with a near-record 68 pass attempts. Look for the Rams to feature a more conservative game plan with Gurley's track record of success against the Seahawks.
Seattle's run defense has been strong on the ground but has struggled to limit running back receiving yards. Seattle has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game but the third-most receiving yards to running backs. Gurley’s passing game usage spiked last week with 11 targets, seven receptions and 54 receiving yards — all season-highs.
The Seahawks will likely limit Gurley's rushing yards, but can they contain him through the air? — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Pick'em
- Projected Total: 49
Despite getting 55% of the early action (see live public betting data here), the Rams have gone from a pick 'em to +1.5. I wouldn't read too much into this reverse line move as we aren't dealing with any key numbers here.
This is a no bet from me, but if the Seahawks jump out to an early lead — say by 10 or more points by the half — I would lean toward backing them and/or the under.
The Rams' offense is firing on all cylinders when their running game is clicking and defenses struggle to figure out if they're going to run or pass, but when they get into come back mode, their passing offense is more predictable and easier for defenses to slow down. The Seahawks, meanwhile, really try to let the air out of the ball when leading, reverting to their ideal run-heavy offense.
An early Seattle lead would shift this to a game flow that favors the under while an early L.A. lead would shift it to one that favors the over. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.
Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 111-116-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,568 following this strategy since 2003.
The Rams +107 are a match for this system. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Pick
Randle: Under 49
The Rams' brutal defensive performance against Tampa Bay was a likely anomaly, having to adjust for short fields with Goff's four turnovers. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' group still ranks sixth-best in opponents' completion percentage and ninth-best in rushing yards allowed per game.
Seattle's defense has been even better against the run allowing only 79.5 yards per game, sixth-best in the league. The Seahawks have also improved each week against the pass, allowing only 10.7 yards per pass completion.
Seattle offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will continue to feature a run-first offense that ranks sixth-slowest in the NFL, averaging 29.1 seconds per play. Last week's game an exception, Thursday night games typically are ugly, lower-scoring battles. In addition, Goff’s 43.4% average fantasy point production in road games also leans me toward the under.
With 64% of the bets and 75% of the money coming on the over, I'm fading the public and betting this Thursday night battle returns to its usual low-scoring form.
