Rams vs. Seahawks Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Seahawks +8.5 as teaser piece |
| Rams at -2 or better |
| Freddie Swain over 20.5 receiving yards |
Seahawks +8.5 as Teaser Piece
Stuckey: I believe the Seahawks, who will be seeking revenge from a home wild-card loss last year to these same Rams, are a perfect teaser piece to pair with a number of viable options on Sunday (Browns, Vikings or Bills depending on your numbers).
The ideal teaser pieces cross both the 3 and 7 as I've outlined in my recent teaser guide. Ideally, you also want a total lower than 52 — but I do make certain exceptions, including one tonight with Russell Wilson, who can certainly get us in the backdoor if needed as well as any QB in the NFL.
Russ, who is 24-9-2 ATS (72.7%) as an underdog in his career has gone an insane 33-2 when teased 6 points (94.3%) in those games. And when teased as an underdog between 1.5-3 points, he's a perfect 16-0 after getting to the window once again last weekend.
The Seattle secondary has been a mess, so I'm sure Matthew Stafford and company will put up points. Aaron Donald going up against a soft Seattle interior offensive line also scares me a bit, but Russ should certainly be able to keep this within one possession at the minimum against a Rams defense that has clearly taken a step back from last year's elite unit after losing a couple of key contributors.
I've also loved what I've seen from the Seattle offense under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The Seahawks actually lead the NFL in early down EPA per play (0.288), which I believe is more indicative of the overall success we can expect moving forward. The third-down variance should start breaking their way.
Lastly, keep in mind the Rams defensive front looked gassed at the end of last week's game. That could come into play late in this game after now having to travel to Seattle on a short week to chase around Wilson.
Rams at -2 or Better
Chris Raybon: I bet the Rams at +1 and like them up to -2 (-120), which you may or may not still be able to get, as most books have moved to Rams -2.5 (shop for the best line here).
I like how the Rams match up here, the fact that they are completely healthy, and that this is a great bounce-back spot for Los Angeles after a letdown against the Cardinals. To the latter point: According to our Action Labs data, Sean McVay has covered 80% of the time on the road after a loss in his career.
The issue with betting the Rams at more than -2 is you don't leave much margin for error in what should be a close game. The most likely outcome is Rams by a field goal, but Rams kicker Matt Gay has missed 6.5% of his career extra points, which is why my limit is -2.
If you can't get the -2, consider teasing the Seahawks up from +2.5 to +8.5 — even though Seattle is slightly out-matched here, you don't usually see Wilson lose big, and he's 8-2 ATS in his career as a home dog.
You can read more about how these teams match up in my full preview here.
Freddie Swain Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Randle: I think Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are both more injured that Seattle is leading us to believe. Lockett has battled through a hip injury and has posted the WR63 and WR71 stat lines after two consecutive overall top-seven WR games to start the year. It was revealed that Metcalf is dealing with a foot injury, and ran a season-low 23 routes against San Francisco in Week 4.
Further decimating the Seattle passing attack, tight end Gerald Everett's status is still unknown after being on the COVID list since September 29. That leaves the diminutive but speedy Freddy Swain as one of the few healthy options for the Seahawks. Last week, Swain ran 12 routes, received four targets and caught his second touchdown of the season. He brings 4.46 speed against a Rams secondary that will likely deploy All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey on a combination of Lockett and Metcalf.
We project Swain for 27.4 receiving yards, which is almost seven yards over this prop total. This is an 8-rated prop by Sean Koerner on our FantasyLabs PlayerProp tool. I took this line at 21.5 and would continue to back it at the reduced total.
