Titans vs. Rams Odds, Picks, Predictions
| Pick |
|---|
| Lean Rams -7.5 |
| Darrell Henderson Jr. Under 17.5 Rush Attempts |
Lean Rams -7.5
Brandon Anderson: This is a Super Bowl rematch from that incredible Mike Jones goal line tackle on Kevin Dyson, and a few days ago, it was starting to look like a potential Super Bowl preview with both teams at the top of their conference.
Now Derrick Henry is out for the foreseeable future, and the entire future of these Titans is in question. We've heard for years that running backs don't matter, but this will be the ultimate test. Tennessee's entire identity was built around Henry. This is a second-half team. A bad defense hangs on for dear life early while Henry wears down the opponent, and then Henry does all the dirty work late and opens up the play-action for Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown.
There's no real depth behind Henry, and though Tennessee signed Adrian Peterson, Purple Jesus hasn't been an efficient runner since 2015. There's no replacing King Henry.
With Henry, the Titans would have been a very intriguing underdog here. The Rams defense has been below average against the run, and chewing clock with Henry is the perfect antidote against the league's No. 1 offense by DVOA.
Without Henry, this all falls on Tannehill, who has actually been awesome lately — these are the top two teams in passing by EPA over the last four weeks, and the Rams aren't No. 1 — but I worry that so much of that has been the play-action threat, and that Jalen Ramsey can hang with A.J. Brown, too.
Even before the Henry news, I was already a little worried about the late injury Tannehill picked up. He is also 4-10 ATS in night games, rarely at his best when the lights shine brightest. The Titans line hasn't been great, either, and that's not a great formula with Aaron Donald coming up the middle and, apparently, Von Miller running in now off the edge too.
I'd like this line a lot better under a touchdown, but I just can't talk myself into the Titans without Henry. I'm still not positive running backs matter, but Henry definitely matters. He was the one non-QB MVP candidate for a reason.
Darrell Henderson Jr. Under 17.5 Rush Attempts
Michael Arinze: The Rams acquired Matthew Stafford to take them to the next level. He's done just that and then some as he's led Los Angeles to a 7-1 start this season. Moreover, Stafford leads all quarterbacks in the league by more than eight points with a 77.7 Total QBR. His command of the offense in just his first season has been exceptional.
As a result, the Rams are completely fine with him throwing the ball roughly 34 times a game. While Stafford is likely thrilled with the arrangement, that doesn't leave too many opportunities for them to run the football.
Darrell Henderson Jr. has emerged as the Rams lead running back. He's averaging 15.7 rushing attempts this season. Of the seven games he's been involved in this year, there has been only one occasion where he carried the ball more than 17 times.
Los Angeles utilizes a two-back system, so some of Henderson's carries are split with Sony Michel. Michel has had three games of double-digit carries and averages roughly eight attempts per game. As a team, the Rams average 26.5 rushing attempts per game.
Thus, with BetMGM setting Henderson's rushing attempt prop at 17.5, I'm not sure there are enough carries in the game to get him to 18. I like the under in this spot but I wouldn't play it any lower than the current number.
