Editor's note: The following data has been updated to reflect Sean Koerner's final round of projections for Week 6.
To help you make your NFL pick'em picks for Week 6, I've ranked our straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) options by confidence below.
These rankings are based on my power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections — the SU rankings are based specifically on my projected probabilities each team will win outright while the ATS rankings are based on the relative edge when comparing my projected odds to the actual odds.
As 10-point favorites against the Texans, it's no surprise that the Colts sit atop my SU rankings with an 80% projected outright win probability. The Patriots, meanwhile, headline the ATS rankings with a 2.8% edge based on my projected spread of Cowboys -3 vs. the actual spread of Cowboys -3.5 (find real-time NFL odds for every Week 6 game here).
Now let's take a look at the rest!
Week 6 NFL Pick'Em Rankings
Straight Up NFL Picks
| Conf | Team | Opp | Win Prob% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colts | vs. HOU | 80% |
| 2 | Rams | @ NYG | 77% |
| 3 | Chiefs | @ WAS | 73% |
| 4 | Buccaneers | @ PHI | 72% |
| 5 | Packers | @ CHI | 68% |
| 6 | Bills | @ TEN | 67% |
| T-7 | Steelers | vs. SEA | 65% |
| T-7 | Broncos | vs. LV | 65% |
| 9 | Browns | vs. ARI | 63% |
| T-10 | Dolphins | @ JAX | 61% |
| T-10 | Bengals | @ DET | 61% |
| 12 | Cowboys | @ NE | 60% |
| 13 | Ravens | vs. LAC | 57% |
| 14 | Vikings | @ CAR | 56% |
| 15 | Panthers | vs. MIN | 44% |
| 16 | Chargers | @ BAL | 43% |
| 17 | Patriots | vs. DAL | 40% |
| T-18 | Lions | vs. CIN | 39% |
| T-18 | Jaguars | vs. MIA | 39% |
| 20 | Cardinals | @ CLE | 37% |
| T-21 | Raiders | @ DEN | 35% |
| T-21 | Seahawks | @ PIT | 35% |
| 23 | Titans | vs. BUF | 33% |
| 24 | Bears | vs. GB | 32% |
| 25 | Eagles | vs. TB | 28% |
| 26 | Football Team | vs. KC | 27% |
| 27 | Giants | vs. LAR | 23% |
| 28 | Texans | @ IND | 20% |
NFL ATS Picks: Week 6
I'll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I've also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool.
Simply add the odds your contest is using into Column D, then the edge and ratings will automatically recalculate in Column F.
